Updated April 2025
TFI International doesn’t exactly live in the headlines, but it has built something worth paying attention to—especially for investors chasing reliable dividend income. Headquartered in Canada, this logistics heavyweight moves freight all across North America. Whether it’s truckload, LTL, or final-mile delivery, TFI’s reach stretches across the continent.
They’ve been expanding aggressively, too. The company has made a long list of acquisitions over the years, the most notable being the 2021 purchase of UPS Freight. That one move catapulted TFI deeper into the U.S. market and gave it a strong presence in the LTL space. It’s a business that requires scale, discipline, and operational savvy—and TFI has been quietly delivering on all fronts.
For dividend-focused investors, the question becomes: is the income stream solid, and is it likely to grow? Let’s dig into what’s happening under the hood.
Recent Events
The past year hasn’t been easy for TFI shareholders. The stock has dropped more than 50% from its high, with the price recently hovering around the $77 mark. That kind of move isn’t something you ignore, but it doesn’t automatically spell trouble either. Freight markets have cooled off, and earnings have taken a hit—down 36% year-over-year last quarter.
Still, revenue is growing. In the latest quarter, TFI posted 5.5% year-over-year revenue growth. That’s impressive in a softening freight environment. Profit margins remain in positive territory, with a 5.03% net margin and operating cash flow over $1 billion.
The company’s market cap has come down sharply to $6.49 billion, but that puts the forward P/E at a compelling 12.6. That tells you a lot of the bad news may already be baked in, at least from a valuation perspective.
Key Dividend Metrics 📊
💰 Forward Dividend Yield: 2.33%
📈 5-Year Average Yield: 1.23%
📅 Next Dividend Date: April 15, 2025
🔁 Ex-Dividend Date: March 31, 2025
💸 Payout Ratio: 33.27%
📊 Free Cash Flow (TTM): $494.28 million
🏛️ Institutional Ownership: 75.44%
💹 Dividend Growth Trend: Steady increases over the past few years
Dividend Overview
TFI’s dividend has become more meaningful over time. At 2.33%, the current forward yield is noticeably higher than the company’s 5-year average, which sat closer to 1.2%. That bump isn’t just because management has been boosting the payout—it’s also a result of the stock’s sharp drop in price. Lower price, same (or slightly higher) dividend equals better yield for new investors.
The company now pays out $1.80 per share annually, up from $1.65 in the trailing twelve months. It’s not a flashy jump, but it reflects consistency—and more importantly, it’s backed by strong cash flow. TFI generated almost half a billion in free cash flow, which gives them plenty of room to support the dividend while continuing to invest in the business.
What stands out is the discipline. With a payout ratio sitting just above 33%, TFI is handing out only a third of its earnings to shareholders. In a capital-heavy business like logistics, that kind of restraint is a plus. It leaves room for acquisitions, debt reduction, or even more dividend growth in the future.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Here’s where things start to look especially appealing. TFI’s dividend isn’t just a reaction to current market conditions. It’s part of a longer-term pattern. Over the past five years, the company has been inching the payout higher each year—no giant leaps, but solid, dependable increases that compound nicely over time.
The current payout ratio confirms this is a sustainable approach. Even during periods of weaker earnings, TFI has enough cushion to maintain or grow the dividend. It’s not just about earnings, either—cash flow tells the real story, and with $1.06 billion in operating cash flow over the past year, the company isn’t short on liquidity.
Of course, debt levels are something to watch. TFI has around $2.98 billion in total debt, and its debt-to-equity ratio is on the high side at 111%. That’s not unusual in the trucking and logistics world, especially for companies that grow through acquisitions. And while it does add some pressure, the company’s current ratio is just over 1.0—meaning it can meet short-term obligations without much trouble.
The shareholder base also plays a role in stability. Insiders hold just over 6% of the stock, while institutions control more than 75%. That usually signals aligned interests and a focus on sustainable returns rather than short-term gimmicks.
TFI isn’t likely to double its dividend anytime soon, but that’s not the point. The point is consistency. This is a business that’s been built to generate cash, return some of it to shareholders, and grow steadily over time. If you’re looking for flashy yields, you might look elsewhere. But if you value a disciplined operator with room to keep increasing the dividend over time, TFI checks a lot of boxes.
Chart Analysis
Price Action and Trend
Over the past year, the price trend in this chart tells a very clear story of a stock that moved from strength to weakness. It started in the $150s and initially moved sideways with a slight upward drift into the summer months. But from October onward, the picture changed sharply. The breakdown started subtly—lower highs and some increased volatility—but it became undeniable by January.
The recent collapse, starting in February, has been steep and unforgiving. The price has dropped from the $130s into the $70s in just a matter of weeks, now sitting near yearly lows. That kind of movement typically reflects either a significant earnings miss, a broader industry downturn, or a dramatic shift in investor sentiment. Regardless of the cause, the trend is very much in a bearish posture.
Moving Averages
The 50-day moving average (in red) has crossed decisively below the 200-day moving average (in blue), forming what’s often called a “death cross.” More than just a technical term, this reflects sustained selling pressure over a longer time horizon. The slope of both moving averages is downward, reinforcing the bearish structure.
Back in mid-year, the 50-day MA hovered well above the 200-day, reflecting positive momentum. That relationship flipped late in the year and has continued to diverge ever since. This isn’t just a dip—it’s part of a broader, more persistent move lower.
Volume Behavior
Volume has played a key role in confirming the recent move. While trading activity was moderate through most of the year, things changed in late February and March. We’ve seen heavy volume spikes coincide with price breakdowns. That’s often a sign of distribution—when larger holders exit their positions.
The recent activity doesn’t just suggest a short-term sell-off. This looks more like long-term holders reevaluating their positions, particularly given the consistent, heavy red volume bars during the steepest part of the decline.
RSI and Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped sharply into oversold territory in February, dipping below the 30 line. That’s a clear signal of aggressive selling. It bounced briefly in March, pushing toward the 50 level, but never reclaimed a strong position.
What stands out now is the failure of the RSI to regain momentum despite a pause in the price drop. That indicates the bounce lacked conviction. There’s no strong reversal yet—just a pause in the slide.
Current Candle Behavior
Looking at the most recent five candles, there’s not much to suggest buying demand has returned in any meaningful way. The wicks are short and tight—no long lower wicks that would typically signal strong dip buying. Prices are closing near their lows, and there’s a lack of bullish follow-through.
Volume remains elevated, though slightly off peak levels, suggesting there’s still ongoing interest—perhaps from bargain hunters or speculative traders—but not yet enough to form a floor. The lack of upward pressure in the candles reinforces the idea that the stock is still trying to find equilibrium.
Final Thoughts
This chart is showing all the classic traits of a markdown phase. The sharp drop, the breakdown below key support levels, the declining moving averages, and the elevated volume are all working together. Until price can base out and start forming higher lows, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The stock may still be searching for a bottom, and signs of accumulation or stability haven’t appeared yet.
Balance Sheet Analysis
TFI International’s balance sheet at year-end 2024 shows a business that’s grown significantly but has also taken on a good amount of financial baggage to go along with it. Total assets have climbed to over $7.1 billion, up more than 35% from just two years ago. That expansion didn’t come free—total liabilities also rose to $4.47 billion. The company’s equity has kept pace, holding at a stable $2.67 billion, suggesting management has maintained a decent balance between growth and ownership value.
Now, net tangible assets? That’s where things get interesting—TFI is hanging on by a thread there, with only about $50 million left. Most of its balance sheet strength is tied up in goodwill and intangibles from past acquisitions. It’s like buying a house and realizing most of your value is in the fancy kitchen remodel, not the bricks. Meanwhile, working capital has been shaved down to just $33 million, a sharp drop from nearly $300 million a year ago. Add in total debt sitting just shy of $3 billion, and it’s clear the company has leaned into leverage to scale. But to its credit, that leverage hasn’t tanked equity or put the brakes on investment, so long as the cash keeps flowing.
Cash Flow Statement
TFI International continues to generate solid operating cash flow, pulling in just over $1.06 billion over the trailing twelve months. That figure has grown steadily year over year, and it’s clear the business still converts a healthy chunk of earnings into actual cash. Free cash flow also looks solid at $663 million, giving the company room to maneuver despite a bumpier earnings backdrop. Capital expenditures increased again this year, crossing $399 million, but that’s consistent with a company investing in its asset-heavy operations.
On the flip side, cash flowing out through investing activities ballooned to over $1.24 billion. That jump likely reflects acquisition spending or other capital investments that don’t show up in regular capex. Financing cash flow was also negative, driven by a mix of debt repayments and continued share repurchases—though buybacks were far lighter than in recent years. Despite issuing more debt than it repaid, the net inflow was modest, and overall, the cash outflows on both investing and financing sides outweighed what was brought in. That said, the company still looks comfortably positioned to fund operations and maintain shareholder returns without running on empty.
Analyst Ratings
📉 TFI International has recently seen a shift in analyst sentiment, with several firms adjusting their price targets and outlooks to reflect the company’s ongoing operational and earnings challenges.
🟡 In late March 2025, Susquehanna held onto its “Buy” rating but trimmed the price target from $135 to $105, citing weaker-than-expected earnings and ongoing cost pressures. Around the same time, RBC Capital also maintained its “Outperform” rating but lowered its target from $156 to $127, pointing specifically to margin compression in the U.S. LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) segment.
🔻 UBS opted for a more cautious stance, downgrading the stock to “Neutral” from “Buy” and pulling its target down to $107 from $163. Analysts there raised concerns about the company’s ability to execute on margin improvement, especially as freight markets remain sluggish. Bank of America followed suit with a downgrade to “Underperform” and a price target of $109, noting that elevated costs and flatlined earnings expectations for 2025 are dampening the outlook.
📊 As of early April 2025, the average consensus among 15 analysts sits at a “Moderate Buy” rating. The average price target is $143.71, which implies significant upside from the current share price of around $77.30. Despite the string of downward revisions, the long-term outlook still holds promise in the eyes of several analysts—though clearly, expectations have been reined in.
Earning Report Summary
A Softer Quarter Across the Board
TFI International’s latest quarterly earnings came in a bit underwhelming, reflecting the broader cooling that’s been happening across the freight and logistics space. Operating income for the fourth quarter dropped to $160.2 million from $198.3 million the year before. Net income slid too, landing at $88.1 million compared to $131.4 million a year earlier. On a per-share basis, diluted earnings came in at $1.03, down from $1.53. Even after adjustments, the earnings per share were still lower—$1.19 versus $1.71 previously.
That said, revenue did manage to grow, hitting $2.08 billion for the quarter, up from $1.97 billion. But most of that growth came from acquisitions rather than organic demand. Truckload operations saw a huge lift—up 64%—largely thanks to the acquisition of Daseke. The rest of the segments weren’t as fortunate. Less-Than-Truckload and Logistics both took a step back, with revenues falling 13% and 14% respectively. Their profitability followed suit, with LTL down 34% and Logistics off by 22%.
Full-Year Highlights and Looking Ahead
For the full year, TFI pulled in $8.4 billion in revenue, up from $7.52 billion in the previous year. But even with that top-line growth, operating income still dipped to $719 million from $757.6 million. That tells you everything didn’t exactly go according to plan. The good news is that recent acquisitions helped soften the blow and will likely play a bigger role moving forward.
In a move that’ll grab the attention of anyone watching the dividend, TFI’s board approved a 13% hike in the quarterly payout, bumping it to $0.45 per share. That’s a strong vote of confidence despite the choppy environment. They also announced plans to re-domicile to the U.S., which could be a smart alignment considering how much of their business now comes from American operations.
CEO Alain Bédard acknowledged the industry challenges but stayed focused on the long-term game. While volumes might be a bit soft right now, the company isn’t standing still. With a strategy centered on acquisitions and tighter operations, the game plan is clearly about navigating through the storm while setting up for better days ahead.
Management Team
TFI International is led by a seasoned leadership group with deep roots in the transportation and logistics world. At the top is Alain Bédard, who’s been with the company since the mid-90s. He’s held the roles of Chairman, President, and CEO for decades, guiding the company through a long string of acquisitions and transforming it into a major cross-border logistics player. Before TFI, he spent time at Saputo and KPMG, which explains his strong command of both numbers and operations.
Backing him up is CFO David Saperstein, who joined TFI in 2016 and moved into the top finance role in 2019. He’s got a strong M&A background, sharpened by years in investment banking, and he’s played a key role in shaping the company’s acquisition-heavy growth strategy. The team also includes Joel Andre, leading human resources, and Daniel Chevalier, who oversees financial reporting. Both have helped anchor the internal structure that supports TFI’s sprawling operations. Recently, Brad Glassford and John Harrington were promoted into EVP roles, which shows there’s a clear emphasis on rewarding internal experience and keeping leadership aligned with operations.
Valuation and Stock Performance
Right now, TFI International’s stock is hovering around $77.30, down quite a bit from its highs. That gives the company a market cap just north of $6.5 billion, while enterprise value sits closer to $9.5 billion. At a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5x, the stock isn’t expensive relative to its sector, especially considering its asset-heavy model and acquisition potential. Analysts seem to agree, with a consensus price target near $145, which leaves a wide gap between where it trades today and where many believe it could go.
The past year has been bumpy, no way around it. The stock has swung between $74 and $162, and with a beta of 1.47, it moves more than the broader market. Freight and logistics names often do when the economy shifts. That said, TFI has made moves that hint at a turnaround — and the market could start to respond once macro headwinds begin to ease.
Risks and Considerations
Like any logistics company, TFI is at the mercy of external forces it can’t fully control. The price of diesel, fluctuations in freight demand, labor markets, and regulatory shifts all have the potential to squeeze margins. Add in the complexity of integrating big acquisitions like Daseke, and there’s real execution risk. Leadership has acknowledged some of the recent stumbles, especially in the latest quarter, where cargo volumes came in light and performance disappointed.
The decision to shift the company’s legal headquarters to the U.S. hasn’t gone over quietly either. It raised some eyebrows, especially among Canadian institutional investors. There could be longer-term effects on tax treatment, compliance, and investor perception depending on how this plays out. While the move might make strategic sense, especially given the U.S.-centric nature of operations, it doesn’t come without tension.
There’s also the matter of environmental and labor scrutiny. As ESG standards evolve, transportation companies are increasingly under the microscope. While TFI isn’t an outlier on this front, it still needs to keep pace with compliance, sustainability efforts, and workforce engagement to avoid reputational or financial setbacks.
Final Thoughts
TFI International is a logistics powerhouse with a strong leadership team and a track record of growth through smart acquisitions. The stock is currently trading well below analyst targets, and valuation metrics suggest room for upside. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing. The company is facing clear headwinds—some internal, some macro—and its recent results reflect that reality.
Even so, the long-term story isn’t broken. With a focus on operational efficiency, careful capital allocation, and a management team that’s shown they can execute over time, TFI is positioning itself for the next leg of its journey. Whether or not the stock rebounds quickly, the company appears set on building value steadily, even if the road has gotten a little rougher lately.