Updated 3/26
In the world of industrial real estate, a few names grab all the headlines. But behind the scenes, there are companies like STAG Industrial quietly putting in the work. It’s not flashy. There’s no dramatic growth story or sky-high stock performance to boast about. What STAG brings to the table is consistency—and for income-focused investors, that’s often exactly what matters.
STAG focuses on single-tenant industrial properties. These are the kind of buildings that keep the modern economy humming—distribution centers, warehouses, and light manufacturing sites. While others chase premium urban hubs, STAG has carved out a niche in secondary markets. And it’s been doing that steadily since its IPO back in 2011.
Recent Events
Over the past year, STAG’s stock has had a bit of a bumpy ride. Currently trading around $35.46, it’s well below its 52-week high of $41.63 and just above its recent low of $32.27. That puts it down around 7.75% for the year—lagging behind the broader market, which has moved higher during the same stretch.
That said, the company’s operations are holding up well. Revenue is growing steadily, up 8.7% year-over-year, and earnings have shown strong improvement with a 22.1% bump in the last quarter. While the stock may be underperforming, the business behind it appears solid, particularly when you zoom in on the fundamentals. The industrial sector continues to be one of the more durable parts of the real estate market, and STAG’s leasing activity has been strong.
Key Dividend Metrics
📅 Dividend Yield: 4.20%
💸 Annual Dividend: $1.49 per share
📈 5-Year Average Yield: 4.22%
📆 Dividend Frequency: Monthly
🧮 Payout Ratio: 142.31% (based on net income)
📍 Ex-Dividend Date: March 31, 2025
💵 Payment Date: April 15, 2025
Dividend Overview
One of STAG’s more appealing features is its monthly dividend. That alone puts it in a rare group of stocks that provide steady, predictable cash flow to investors—something particularly attractive to those relying on passive income. At 4.20%, the yield is in line with its historical average, making it feel more like a dependable payout rather than a temporary spike due to stock weakness.
Now, that payout ratio—over 140%—can cause some raised eyebrows. But that figure is based on net income, which doesn’t tell the full story for real estate investment trusts. Depreciation and other non-cash expenses weigh down reported earnings. Looking instead at cash flow metrics like AFFO, the dividend coverage appears much healthier and better aligned with industry norms.
Dividend Growth and Safety
If you’re looking for fast-growing dividend checks, STAG might not scratch that itch. Growth has been modest—maybe 1 to 2 percent annually over the past several years. It’s steady, but it’s not going to double anytime soon. That said, the company has made it clear that slow and steady is part of its identity. Management has opted for a conservative approach, focusing more on sustainability than surprise increases.
The safety of the dividend looks solid. STAG’s properties are leased to a diversified group of tenants across different industries. Plus, many leases stretch several years into the future, which adds visibility into income streams. When you combine that with a conservative payout policy on a cash flow basis, it points toward a company built for dividend dependability.
Chart Analysis
Market Cycle Context
The chart for STAG Industrial is painting a classic Wyckoff-style picture. Starting from late spring into summer of last year, we saw what looks like a Phase C in a Wyckoff accumulation structure—price dipped sharply, found support, and then began a strong markup phase heading into mid-August. Volume increased steadily as the price pushed higher, confirming institutional participation.
By late summer into early fall, that momentum faded. Price plateaued and started to chop sideways to lower. This behavior resembles distribution. From September through November, the range narrowed, volume tapered, and the price couldn’t break above its prior highs. Then came the markdown.
From December through January, price declined in a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting markdown was fully underway. This phase bottomed out sharply in early February with a noticeable spike in volume—likely a combination of panic selling and value-driven buying interest stepping in.
Since then, the chart shows signs of what could be a new accumulation phase forming. There’s a rounded bottom structure starting to take shape, and price has moved back above the recent lows with some constructive price action.
Moving Averages
The 50-day moving average (orange line) recently crossed below the 200-day moving average (blue line), forming a death cross back in early January. While that often signals extended bearish momentum, it’s important to zoom in on recent price action. Price has since rallied and recently kissed the 200-day line from below but got rejected—this is a key technical area to watch.
The 50-day moving average is now curling upward, hinting at a possible trend reversal if it can cross back above the 200-day. However, we’re not there yet. The recent rejection at that level confirms it remains an area of resistance.
Volume Behavior
Volume adds a lot of color here. During the August rally, volume increased with price—classic markup behavior. That changed in October and November when rallies were met with weaker volume and declines were heavier. This shift helped confirm distribution.
What’s especially interesting is the big green volume bar in early February that coincided with a price reversal. That was followed by a mix of rising and falling sessions, but recent weeks have seen volume build again, particularly on green days. It suggests the market is testing supply and starting to see absorption of selling pressure.
Still, the most recent candle came on declining volume—caution is warranted as that can indicate weakening follow-through from buyers.
RSI and Momentum
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the bottom, it dipped below 30 in early February, a classic oversold signal. Since then, it’s recovered nicely and approached the 60 level in mid-March, but it’s rolled over again slightly. That shows momentum is still tentative, not yet confirming a full trend change.
What stands out is that RSI didn’t fall as deeply on the recent price pullback as it did back in December. This could be an early sign of bullish divergence—price making lower lows, but momentum making higher lows.
Last Five Candles
Zooming into the last five candles tells us a lot about the tug-of-war underway.
- The first shows a strong bullish candle with a long body and solid volume—likely shorts covering and buyers stepping in.
- The next two candles show hesitation—narrow ranges and wicks on both ends, suggesting indecision.
- The fourth candle is a bearish engulfing type, rejecting the 200-day line and closing near the low of the day.
- Most recently, the candle tried to push higher but left an upper wick—sellers stepped in on intraday strength, and volume fell. It’s not a breakdown, but definitely not a breakout either.
Each of these candles is interacting with the 50-day and 200-day averages, reinforcing just how important this zone is for the stock’s next move.
Analyst Ratings
📉 STAG Industrial has recently seen several analyst moves that reflect a slightly cautious stance given the current macro environment. Back in January 2025, RBC Capital lowered its price target on the stock from $40 to $38, while keeping a Sector Perform rating. The adjustment was driven largely by concerns around rising interest rates and how those may weigh on real estate investment trusts like STAG. The income side remains stable, but analysts seem to be watching for pressure on borrowing costs and cap rates.
🔄 Wedbush Securities also made a revision around the same time, trimming its price target from $40 to $39. Interestingly, they held onto their Outperform rating, which suggests they still see strength in the company’s fundamentals but are dialing back expectations slightly due to broader market conditions.
📈 On the brighter side, Evercore ISI took a more optimistic tone earlier, raising its target from $43 to $44 back in August 2024 while maintaining an Outperform rating. That signal came during a period of relative strength in industrial REITs, when tenant demand and leasing activity were both firming up.
📊 As of now, STAG is trading around $35.46. The current consensus price target among analysts sits near $39.00, suggesting moderate upside potential. The spread is fairly wide, with some targets as low as $35.00 and others going up to $46.00. That range reflects differing views on how quickly the REIT sector might bounce back if interest rate pressures ease.
🧭 Overall, analyst sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish, with a tilt toward cautious optimism. The dividend stability and industrial exposure are clear strengths, but expectations have been tempered as the market recalibrates around inflation, rates, and the economic outlook.
Earning Report Summary
STAG Industrial closed out the final quarter of 2024 on a strong note, showing steady performance across the board. The numbers weren’t flashy, but they were solid—exactly what income investors tend to appreciate from a company built around consistency and cash flow.
Earnings and FFO
Earnings came in at $0.28 per share, up from $0.23 this time last year. It’s not a blowout, but it’s a healthy bump that reflects stable operations and efficient management. More importantly for a REIT, funds from operations (FFO) reached $0.61 per share. That’s up over 5% year-over-year, which is a nice pace for a company like STAG that focuses on industrial properties. It shows that the cash being generated from its real estate portfolio continues to support dividends and operational needs without strain.
Revenue Growth
Revenue for the quarter landed at just under $200 million, marking an 8.7% increase from the same quarter in 2023. That kind of growth in this environment speaks to the strength of demand for well-located industrial space. STAG’s ability to keep its properties full and collect rent without hiccups plays a huge role here.
Portfolio Expansion
STAG didn’t just sit back this quarter either. The company added 15 new buildings to its portfolio, totaling over 2 million square feet. What’s encouraging is that every single one of those new properties was already fully leased. That means the assets were cash-flowing from day one, which is a savvy move in a higher-rate environment where time equals money.
Occupancy and Balance Sheet
Occupancy held firm at 96.5%, which is impressive given the size of the portfolio. Retaining tenants and keeping space filled is no small feat, especially in certain parts of the commercial real estate world. STAG seems to be navigating that challenge well.
From a financial health standpoint, the balance sheet looks sound. Debt levels are in a manageable range, and the company has enough liquidity on hand to keep making smart moves without overextending itself.
Overall, the quarter looked like what you’d want from a REIT focused on industrial space: more cash coming in, more properties under ownership, and a tenant base that’s sticking around. Nothing groundbreaking—but very dependable.
Financial Health and Stability
From a financial health standpoint, STAG is in a comfortable spot. Over the past year, it generated $560 million in EBITDA and pulled in $460 million in operating cash flow. That kind of consistent cash generation is what gives the dividend its backbone. Levered free cash flow came in at $351 million, providing room not only to support the dividend but to reinvest in the portfolio as well.
The company carries about $3.06 billion in total debt and maintains a debt-to-equity ratio just under 87%. That’s a little on the high side, but for a REIT, it’s not unusual. The current ratio, sitting at 0.88, shows that the company runs a lean balance sheet with little excess liquidity, which again is typical for real estate firms that manage stable income streams.
Cash on hand is just over $72 million. Not a huge reserve, but STAG’s cash flow is steady enough that short-term needs are rarely a concern. The company’s laddered debt profile also means that refinancing risks are managed well, even in a rising rate environment.
Valuation and Stock Performance
Looking at valuation, STAG trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.91 and a price-to-sales ratio of 8.43. It’s not screaming cheap, but it’s also not pricing in big growth. Its EV/EBITDA sits around 16 times, which suggests investors are willing to pay a modest premium for its cash flow reliability.
As for stock performance, the chart has been stuck in a sideways trend. Shares are trading below both their 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bit of investor caution. That said, the fundamentals haven’t deteriorated—so what we’re likely seeing is the market pricing in higher rates and muted near-term growth rather than anything company-specific.
Institutional investors clearly still have confidence here, with nearly 90% of shares held by large funds. Insider ownership is low, but that’s not surprising for a REIT structure.
Risks and Considerations
The big risk hanging over STAG, like many other REITs, is interest rates. Rising rates not only raise the cost of debt but also compress valuation multiples. While STAG has done a good job managing its debt load and refinancing risk, there’s still some exposure.
Tenant risk is another area to monitor. Although STAG has over 500 properties, there is still some tenant concentration, and any significant default could put pressure on cash flows. So far, rent collections and occupancy have remained strong, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on.
And finally, dividend growth might disappoint those looking for more acceleration. STAG isn’t in the business of rapid increases—it’s a slow, methodical income play. That’s great for stability, but not everyone has the patience for it.
Final Thoughts
STAG Industrial is the kind of stock that doesn’t need to make headlines to be doing its job well. It owns the kind of real estate that stays rented, keeps the cash coming in, and fits naturally into the portfolios of income-focused investors.
The monthly dividends are a standout feature, and the yield is comfortably above average. While growth won’t blow anyone away, the story here is more about reliability than reinvention.
For investors who value consistency and like knowing they’ll see that dividend check drop in every month, STAG quietly keeps showing up. Sometimes, boring is exactly what you want.