Updated 3/26
Sirius XM has come a long way since its early satellite radio days. Today, it’s not just a radio company—it’s a full-fledged audio entertainment powerhouse. With its streaming services, exclusive content deals, and a stronghold in the automotive space, Sirius XM has found ways to stay relevant in a fast-changing media landscape.
At just under $24 per share and a market cap around $8.1 billion, SIRI has seen better days in terms of stock performance. But underneath the surface, there are some intriguing developments that income investors may want to pay attention to. Notably, the company offers a surprisingly generous dividend yield and appears committed to rewarding shareholders despite recent market turbulence.
Recent Events
The past year has been a rollercoaster for Sirius XM. Most notably, the company executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in September 2024—an uncommon move that sent mixed signals. Often, such actions are aimed at preserving exchange listings or improving perceptions around the stock’s pricing. In Sirius XM’s case, it seems more cosmetic than fundamental, though it has definitely put a spotlight on how management views shareholder value.
On the financial side, the company reported a 4.4% drop in quarterly revenue compared to the prior year. Despite this decline, earnings growth surprised to the upside, climbing nearly 67% year-over-year. These numbers suggest that while top-line challenges persist, Sirius XM is finding ways to trim fat and improve efficiency. And when margins start to widen, dividend investors tend to pay attention.
Key Dividend Metrics
📈 Forward Dividend Yield: 4.51%
💰 Annual Dividend: $1.08 per share
🕰️ Five-Year Average Yield: 1.86%
🧮 Payout Ratio: 31.52%
📆 Last Dividend Date: February 25, 2025
🔻 Ex-Dividend Date: February 7, 2025
Dividend Overview
Let’s talk about that yield. At 4.51%, Sirius XM is paying a dividend that’s more than double its five-year average. That’s a significant jump, especially for a company in media and tech where dividends often take a backseat to growth. The current payout is sustainable at first glance, backed by a payout ratio of just over 31%.
That means Sirius XM is keeping the dividend well within the bounds of its earnings, without jeopardizing cash flow. In a market where many firms are slashing payouts or stretching to maintain them, Sirius XM’s dividend stands out not just for the size, but for the relative prudence behind it.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Safety-wise, Sirius XM’s dividend is in an interesting spot. The company has made a clear choice to prioritize its dividend even while navigating earnings volatility and a challenging media landscape. Free cash flow remains solid, with over $813 million in levered free cash flow last year. That’s more than enough to cover dividends and still have capital left over.
The forward-looking picture is cautious but not alarming. Management appears to be managing its obligations conservatively. They’re not growing the dividend rapidly, but they are maintaining it, and that’s arguably more important for long-term holders who value reliability.
That said, with a trailing twelve-month loss of $1.66 billion and a negative EPS of -$4.93, you might wonder how sustainable this really is. The reality is, Sirius XM’s profitability has been heavily influenced by one-time charges and non-cash adjustments. Strip those out, and the core operations still generate strong cash—enough to keep that dividend intact, for now.
Chart Analysis
Current Cycle Position and Wyckoff Context
The chart for Sirius XM (SIRI) appears to be in the late stages of a markdown phase, showing signs that it may be entering early accumulation. Over the past year, the stock has experienced a persistent downtrend, confirmed by both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 200-day SMA is still heading lower, and the 50-day recently attempted a modest flattening before rolling over again—indicative of heavy overhead supply and lack of sustained buying pressure.
Volume has stayed muted for the most part, except for a notable spike in late June/early July. This burst looks like an automatic rally attempt—possibly short covering or reactionary buying—but it was not sustained. Since then, lower highs and lower lows have continued to print, with only brief relief rallies.
The long sideways chop in December through February suggests the beginning of Phase A in Wyckoff’s accumulation process—where selling pressure begins to exhaust. That said, a clear selling climax isn’t cleanly visible. We’re likely somewhere between a late markdown and Phase B of accumulation, where composite operators begin testing supply and gauging interest.
RSI and Momentum View
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently sitting around 16—deep into oversold territory. That level hasn’t been this low since the sharp summer drawdown, and it speaks to a severely depressed short-term sentiment. Historically, such RSI readings can precede relief bounces, but in this context, the RSI has struggled to stay above 50 for long, which reinforces the dominant bearish structure.
Momentum, while flattening slightly, has not decisively turned up. Buyers aren’t yet stepping in with conviction.
Volume Action and Price Behavior
Volume has stayed relatively low since late summer, which suggests institutional interest is still absent or cautious. That one green spike in early July was not followed by any buildup in sustained buying. Instead, every rally attempt has been met with increasing supply near the 50-day moving average—acting as a ceiling repeatedly.
There’s also clear price rejection near the $25 mark, visible throughout January and February. Each time the stock pushed toward that level, it was quickly knocked back—marking it as a short-term resistance area to watch.
Moving Averages and Structure
Both the 50-day (orange line) and 200-day (blue line) SMAs are sloping downward. This alignment suggests the longer-term trend remains bearish. What’s notable though is the distance between the price and the 200-day average has narrowed slightly in recent months, showing that the pace of decline is slowing. This can be the early sign of basing behavior, though it’s still too early to confirm a trend reversal.
The price is currently hugging the 50-day average from below, and the last few sessions are showing hesitation right at this level. If price can reclaim and hold above the 50-day moving average, it could lead to a retest of the $25 zone.
Candle Activity – Last Five Sessions
Looking at the most recent candles:
- The last five daily candles show narrow ranges with long lower wicks, especially the last two. That signals buying pressure stepping in after intraday drops.
- There’s no aggressive bullish candle yet, but the consistent lower wick activity hints at short-term demand building.
- The closing prices have stayed tightly bunched—an indication of indecision, typical before a breakout or breakdown.
- Volume during these days hasn’t spiked, which means any rally attempt still lacks conviction.
- Importantly, none of the candles have broken above the small range formed during mid-March.
This tight, low-volume price action with lower wick support lines up with Wyckoff testing behavior, where the market checks to see if sellers are still present. So far, the tests haven’t sparked strong rallies—but they also haven’t failed catastrophically.
Analyst Ratings
📉 Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) has recently seen a mix of analyst activity, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding its short-term outlook. In February 2025, Rosenblatt Securities maintained a neutral stance on the stock but revised their price target down from $29 to $24. The adjustment likely stems from continued concerns over sluggish subscriber growth and softness in ad revenues, which have weighed on the company’s overall earnings potential.
📊 In January 2025, Barrington Research reaffirmed their buy rating, showing continued belief in the company’s long-term strategy. However, even they trimmed their price target slightly, moving from $30 to $28. The small cut signals that while they remain optimistic, they’re acknowledging some near-term headwinds, possibly tied to the rising competition in streaming and connected car services.
⚠️ Going back to December 2024, Seaport Global downgraded SIRI from buy to neutral and withdrew their $34 price target. This shift came amid concerns that Sirius XM’s traditional revenue models were facing growing pressure from digital audio competitors. The downgrade suggests they’re waiting for clearer signs of adaptation or innovation before turning bullish again.
📌 As of late March 2025, the average consensus price target from 16 analysts stands at $23.58. Ratings range across the board, from sell to buy, reflecting a market that’s still trying to decide how to price in Sirius XM’s evolving business model. The stock is currently trading close to this consensus target, which suggests that analysts don’t see a lot of upside baked in at the moment.
💡 Altogether, analysts seem to agree that while Sirius XM still holds brand value and reliable cash flow, it’s navigating a competitive landscape that demands faster innovation. Until there’s more clarity on growth strategy and subscriber momentum, the street is likely to remain cautious.
Earning Report Summary
A Tough Year on Paper
Sirius XM had a bit of a mixed bag in its latest earnings update for the full year ending December 31, 2024. The headline number that jumped out was a net loss of $2.08 billion for the year, which is a big swing from the $988 million profit they posted in 2023. But there’s a key reason for that dramatic drop—a large, one-time impairment charge of $3.36 billion that hit in the third quarter. It wasn’t a cash loss, but rather an accounting adjustment tied to goodwill, reflecting the company’s lower stock valuation over time.
A Better Fourth Quarter
The fourth quarter told a different story. Sirius XM brought in $287 million in net income, which was actually stronger than the $228 million they earned in the same period a year ago. Earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.83, up from $0.67 last year. So while the full-year numbers look rough, the Q4 performance showed some resilience.
Revenue Takes a Dip
Total revenue for 2024 landed at $8.7 billion, down slightly from $8.95 billion the year before. The fourth quarter contributed $2.19 billion of that, a 4% drop compared to the same period in 2023. Most of that decline came from subscriber revenue slipping a bit, along with some softness in ad sales. It’s not unexpected given the competitive audio landscape and shifting consumer habits.
The SiriusXM segment itself posted $6.55 billion in revenue, down 4% from the prior year. The subscriber base is shrinking a bit, which weighed on revenue. On the flip side, the Pandora and Off-platform segment actually showed some growth—revenues ticked up 2% to $2.15 billion, driven by modest increases in both advertising and subscriptions.
Cash Flow and EBITDA Holding Up
Adjusted EBITDA for the year came in at $2.73 billion, just a touch below last year’s $2.79 billion. The margin held steady at 31%, which is a good sign. Free cash flow, however, dropped to $1.02 billion from $1.20 billion. That dip was mostly due to Liberty Media-related transactions, timing of tax payments, higher capital spending, and increased taxes.
Subscriber Movement
In the last quarter of the year, Sirius XM added 149,000 self-pay subscribers, bringing the total to about 33 million. Still, they ended the year down overall, having lost around 296,000 self-pay subscribers in total. Pandora didn’t fare much better—subscriber numbers fell by 101,000 in Q4, leaving them at 5.8 million.
Looking Ahead
For 2025, Sirius XM is guiding for around $8.5 billion in revenue, with adjusted EBITDA expected to land at $2.6 billion. They’re aiming to generate about $1.15 billion in free cash flow. Management also shared plans to carve out another $200 million in cost savings by the end of the year, hoping to run leaner and invest more smartly as they push forward.
Financial Health and Stability
There’s a bit of a double-edged sword here. On one hand, Sirius XM continues to produce strong operating cash flow, generating $1.74 billion over the past twelve months. That cash engine has powered share buybacks, debt servicing, and, yes, dividends.
On the other hand, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged. Total debt sits at $10.71 billion, compared to just $162 million in cash. The current ratio of 0.42 shows tight liquidity—this isn’t a company with a ton of wiggle room if things turn south quickly.
Return on assets is 4.05%, which is decent. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the strain of accumulated losses and high leverage. That doesn’t necessarily signal immediate danger, but it does highlight the importance of watching how management handles capital going forward.
Valuation and Stock Performance
From a valuation perspective, Sirius XM looks inexpensive on paper. The trailing P/E ratio is just 7.28, and forward P/E comes in at around 7.8. Those are low numbers, especially for a company with a recognizable brand and recurring revenue.
The PEG ratio—a measure of value relative to growth—is also compelling at just 0.66. That suggests the market may be undervaluing the company’s earnings growth potential, although that assumption depends heavily on forward projections materializing as expected.
That said, stock performance has been rough. Sirius XM is down more than 38% over the past year, while the broader S&P 500 climbed nearly 9%. Even the 50-day and 200-day moving averages tell a story of persistent weakness. It’s clear that investor sentiment is shaky, likely due to competitive pressures and fears about long-term subscriber trends.
Still, high insider ownership at 44.4% suggests management is very much aligned with shareholders. Institutional ownership stands at just under 41%, which is a healthy but not dominant share—indicating a decent level of external confidence without major control from big money.
Risks and Considerations
The biggest challenge Sirius XM faces is relevance. With the rise of podcasting, Spotify, and on-demand streaming, Sirius XM has to work harder to justify its subscription model. While it’s still deeply entrenched in the automotive space, especially in new car installations, that moat is narrowing as connected cars become more app-friendly.
Another key risk is the heavy debt load. While interest rates remain a headwind, refinancing could get more expensive in the coming years. If cash flow takes a hit, dividends could come under pressure—especially if management is forced to redirect capital toward debt servicing.
It’s also worth watching how the reverse split impacts retail investor perception. While it doesn’t change the fundamentals, reverse splits can often signal distress or declining investor confidence. If the company can’t change the narrative, it may struggle to attract new shareholders—even with an appealing yield.
Final Thoughts
Sirius XM is one of those names that sits in an in-between space. It’s not quite a growth play anymore, but it’s not a pure income stock either. That said, it does offer one of the more generous and potentially sustainable dividends in the media space.
For dividend investors willing to accept a bit of headline risk and balance sheet complexity, Sirius XM offers a unique mix of brand power, cash flow stability, and income potential. It’s not perfect—and certainly not without its challenges—but it has carved out a niche in the portfolio of investors who value steady payouts backed by operational cash strength.