Updated 3/13/25
Regions Financial Corporation, better known by its ticker RF, is a regional bank with deep roots in the American South. Based in Birmingham, Alabama, this institution has been around for generations and plays a significant role in the everyday financial lives of individuals and businesses across the Southeast. From basic banking to more specialized services, it covers a lot of ground.
This isn’t the kind of stock that’s going to double overnight, and that’s just fine for investors focused on income. It’s built to provide something else—consistency. And in today’s market, that’s becoming a rare commodity. RF may not be in the spotlight, but it’s quietly delivering the kind of steady returns that dividend investors appreciate.
Recent Events
Over the past year, bank stocks have gone through quite a rollercoaster. The collapse of a few high-profile regional banks in 2023 rattled confidence in the sector, but Regions managed to stay out of the headlines—and that’s a good thing.
Even with the pressure in the space, RF stock has climbed about 12% in the last 12 months. That’s actually better than the broader market over the same period. And when you dig into the numbers, there’s real strength behind that move. The most recent earnings showed nearly 23% growth in earnings per share and over 15% revenue growth year-over-year. That kind of performance doesn’t happen by accident.
Key Dividend Metrics
🟢 Dividend Yield: 4.49%
📈 5-Year Average Yield: 3.99%
💵 Annual Dividend: $1.00
📊 Payout Ratio: 50.78%
📆 Next Dividend Date: April 1, 2025
🛡 Dividend Safety: Strong
Dividend Overview
At a 4.49% yield, RF’s dividend stands out. It’s not just above average—it’s meaningfully higher than what you’d get from many larger banks or even most utility stocks. The company has struck a solid balance between rewarding shareholders and keeping enough cash in the business to navigate whatever the economy throws at it.
There’s also a sense of reliability to RF’s payout. They’ve been cutting checks to shareholders quarter after quarter, even through tougher cycles. It’s not about huge jumps or flashy raises—it’s about dependability. And for income investors, that kind of consistency can be even more valuable than high-flying growth.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Over the past ten years, Regions has made a clear effort to build a dividend profile that’s both attractive and sustainable. Back in 2014, the annual payout was just $0.12. Fast-forward to today, and that figure has grown to a full dollar. Most of that growth happened earlier on, but the company continues to nudge the payout higher when it makes sense.
What really stands out is the safety behind the numbers. The current payout ratio is right around 51%, giving the bank flexibility even in a weaker earnings environment. With $1.93 in earnings per share over the past twelve months, RF could weather a dip in profits and still cover the dividend without stress. That kind of cushion is comforting, especially in a sector that’s had its fair share of volatility.
Chart Analysis
Current Position in the Market Cycle
The chart for Regions Financial (RF) is showing clear signs that the stock has entered the markdown phase of the Wyckoff cycle. After a prolonged uptrend through mid-to-late 2024, the stock peaked and then started forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. This is classic distribution behavior, where institutional players are gradually offloading their positions into strength. The heavy selling volume around the highs confirms that phase.
From there, the stock started to break down below its 50-day moving average, and recently, it sliced through the 200-day moving average with conviction. That crossover and sharp downside move typically mark the transition out of distribution into markdown. The failure to find support at the 200-day suggests weak demand and little buyer interest at those levels.
Volume and Selling Pressure
Volume tells a big part of the story. While there were spikes on the way up—particularly during accumulation and markup—the volume profile has shifted. In the most recent decline, volume has picked up noticeably, especially on red days. That increase in bearish volume as the price drops confirms distribution is behind us and that markdown is now active.
The stock closed at 21.06 after hitting an intraday low of 20.68, and even though there was a slight bounce off the low, the lack of strong upside wick shows that buyers didn’t step in aggressively. Recent candles have long bodies with minimal wicks on the upside, which is a sign of sustained selling throughout the day.
Moving Averages and Momentum
The 50-day moving average has clearly turned downward and crossed below the 200-day moving average, which is often referred to as a death cross. While not always a perfect signal, in the context of this chart, it fits the broader bearish shift. Price has now fallen firmly below both moving averages, and there’s a wide gap between the price and the 50-day line, signaling that momentum is sharply down.
The 200-day moving average is flattening, which suggests long-term momentum is slowing but not yet reversing. Unless the stock quickly rebounds and regains that level, it’s likely that the path of least resistance remains to the downside for now.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is trending downward and approaching oversold territory. It hasn’t quite touched the classic 30 level yet, but it’s getting close. That tells us the stock is weak but not yet stretched to extremes. There’s room for further downside before a technical bounce would be expected based purely on RSI.
Candle Analysis: Recent Five Days
Looking at the last five candles, the pressure is clearly to the downside:
- The first two candles show long bodies and small upper wicks—strong selling through the sessions.
- The third candle attempted a slight rebound but closed weak, with a wick on top showing sellers stepped in again near the highs.
- The fourth candle is another large red bar, again without significant wick action, suggesting persistent bearish flow.
- The fifth and most recent candle closed near the low after failing to hold early gains. Sellers remain in control.
This five-day sequence shows no sign of demand stepping in with strength, and the downward pressure is intensifying with each failed intraday recovery.
Analyst Ratings
📊 Analysts have recently adjusted their outlook on Regions Financial Corporation (RF), leading to a mix of updated ratings and revised price targets. The overall consensus from 18 analysts currently sits at a Moderate Buy, with an average 12-month price target of $27.28. That represents a potential upside of around 23% from the recent trading levels near $22.13. Individual price targets range between $23.00 on the low end and $33.00 on the high end, showing a fairly broad range of expectations for where the stock could head in the near term.
🔄 In recent weeks, Citigroup lowered its price target for RF from $28 to $25 but maintained a Buy rating. The revised target reflects concerns around macroeconomic softness, including slower economic growth and trade policy uncertainty. Even though the target was adjusted down, the continued Buy stance indicates confidence in the company’s fundamentals once broader conditions stabilize.
📉 Morgan Stanley also revised its price target, trimming it from $32 to $29 while keeping an Equalweight rating. Their update echoed similar macro-level concerns but acknowledged RF’s stable profitability metrics and solid dividend profile as supportive of the current valuation.
🟡 Truist Securities followed suit by lowering their target to $24 from $26, maintaining a Hold rating. The firm pointed to sector-wide pressure on regional banks and potential headwinds in credit quality as factors behind their more cautious stance.
🧭 Despite these cautious revisions, the overall tone from analysts remains constructive. The majority still see value in RF’s fundamentals, especially with its strong dividend yield and resilient performance in a challenging environment. The updated price targets mostly reflect broader economic worries rather than company-specific red flags.
Earning Report Summary
Regions Financial wrapped up 2024 with a solid finish, showing investors that it’s still executing well despite the challenges facing regional banks. The company reported full-year net income of around $1.8 billion, with earnings per diluted share coming in at $1.93. For the fourth quarter alone, profits hit $508 million, or $0.56 per share—pretty steady compared to prior quarters.
Total revenue in Q4 came in at about $1.8 billion, which was a slight bump up from the previous quarter. What helped? Smart cost control, especially when it came to managing deposit costs. That helped offset some of the pressure from lower asset yields, which are becoming a theme across the banking space.
One standout was the Capital Markets division, which brought in $97 million in revenue thanks to stronger results in merger advisory work and real estate capital services. It’s a small part of the overall business, but it’s growing and adds a nice boost to non-interest income.
Expenses were also well-managed. Operating costs dropped by about 3%, mainly because of lower incentive pay and a dip in expenses tied to the bank’s stake in Visa Class B shares. That kind of discipline always helps the bottom line, especially in a quarter where loan growth was pretty flat.
Speaking of lending, average loans and leases held steady, although there was a bit of a slowdown in business lending. On the other hand, deposits ticked slightly higher—up about 0.4%—which is fairly typical for the end of the year.
On the balance sheet side, Regions remains in good shape. The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio came in at 10.8%, which gives the bank a comfortable buffer. Liquidity also looked strong, with $62.6 billion in available resources. That kind of financial stability goes a long way in building confidence, especially after the volatility the sector saw in the last year.
All in all, the quarter was less about big surprises and more about solid execution. The company is sticking to what it does well and continuing to find ways to drive earnings in a more cautious lending environment. It’s a good example of a bank staying focused and moving steadily through a shifting economic backdrop.
Financial Health and Stability
Financially, Regions is in solid shape. It’s not the biggest bank out there, but it runs efficiently and knows its strengths. Return on equity sits around 10.7%, and return on assets is above 1.2%, which tells us this is a well-run operation. The company’s profit margin is nearly 29%, and operating margins are approaching 47%—very respectable numbers for a regional bank.
While we don’t have the most recent debt breakdown, RF typically keeps a conservative balance sheet. It doesn’t overextend itself, which helps it manage through credit cycles without having to take extreme measures.
One area to watch is its exposure to commercial real estate. Like many regional banks, RF has some ties to that sector, and it could face challenges if delinquencies rise. But so far, loan performance has been stable, and management has kept things under control.
Valuation and Stock Performance
Right now, RF trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just under 10. That’s cheaper than the broader market and below where the stock has historically traded. Price-to-book is at 1.25, again suggesting the stock is fairly priced, maybe even undervalued if you’re optimistic about the sector bouncing back.
The stock has moved up nicely off its lows and currently sits around $22.85 in pre-market trading. That’s a solid gain off the $17.72 low from earlier in the year, but still below the 52-week high of nearly $28. If sentiment around regional banks improves, there’s room for this one to climb higher.
Technically, it hasn’t regained full momentum yet—it’s slightly below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. But for long-term investors, those kinds of short-term patterns don’t matter as much as the fundamentals and the yield.
Risks and Considerations
Like any investment, RF comes with a few risks that are worth keeping in mind.
First, interest rates. This is a bank, and it makes money from the spread between what it pays on deposits and what it earns on loans. If the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates quickly, that spread could shrink and squeeze profits.
Second, there’s always the risk of credit quality. If the economy slows down and defaults start to rise, that could weigh on earnings. Regions has done a good job managing credit so far, but it’s something to watch.
Finally, there’s sector sentiment. Even though RF is doing fine operationally, it’s still grouped in with other regional banks that may be more exposed or poorly run. That kind of guilt-by-association can drag on the stock, even when it’s not justified.
Interestingly, short interest is a bit elevated at around 5.8% of the float. That’s not sky-high, but it does show that some investors are still skeptical. If RF continues to deliver solid numbers, though, that skepticism could turn into a tailwind if shorts begin to cover.
Final Thoughts
Regions Financial isn’t going to steal headlines, but that’s not what income investors are looking for. This is a company that’s focused on doing the basics right—generating earnings, returning capital to shareholders, and maintaining financial strength.
With a yield pushing 4.5%, a reasonable payout ratio, and a valuation that still looks compelling, RF offers a compelling package for those building a dividend-focused portfolio. It’s the kind of stock that might not wow you every quarter, but it pays you to be patient—and does so with a level of consistency that’s hard to find in today’s market.
For investors who care more about income than drama, Regions Financial is quietly doing its job. And that, in this market, is something worth appreciating.