Updated 3/13/25
Radian Group quietly checks a lot of the right boxes. Based in Philadelphia, Radian is best known for its mortgage insurance business, though it also operates in real estate services. It plays a behind-the-scenes role in the U.S. housing market, helping lenders manage risk while keeping credit flowing.
Over the years, Radian has evolved from a pure mortgage insurer into a more diversified financial player, but it hasn’t lost its focus on stability. It’s not a high-growth rocket ship—and that’s exactly why it appeals to income-oriented investors.
Recent Events
Lately, Radian has kept things steady in a market that’s anything but. Revenue in the latest quarter dipped by just under 4% compared to the previous year, but earnings actually ticked higher by nearly the same amount. That tells a story of tight cost management and consistent profitability—two things dividend investors care deeply about.
The stock recently closed at $32.50, which puts it closer to the bottom end of its 52-week range. It’s sitting just below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Not a major concern, but a signal that the market isn’t quite ready to give it a valuation boost just yet.
From a dividend perspective, the next payment is already lined up for March 11. At $0.255 per share, it marks another step in the company’s measured but consistent dividend growth.
Key Dividend Metrics
💰 Forward Dividend Yield: 3.14%
📈 5-Year Average Yield: 2.81%
🧮 Payout Ratio: 25%
📅 Upcoming Dividend Date: March 11, 2025
🔁 Ex-Dividend Date: February 24, 2025
📊 Dividend Growth Streak: 4 years running
Dividend Overview
At just over 3%, Radian’s dividend yield isn’t screaming for attention, but it’s higher than what you’ll find with most large-cap stocks in the broader market. More importantly, it’s been climbing steadily since the company initiated the dividend just a few years ago.
With a payout ratio sitting at 25%, Radian has plenty of room to keep increasing its dividend without stretching its finances. This isn’t the type of company that’s going to chase flashy numbers to satisfy short-term demands. Instead, it takes a methodical approach to returning capital to shareholders.
For dividend-focused investors who prefer predictability over speculation, that’s a feature, not a flaw.
Dividend Growth and Safety
While Radian’s dividend history is still relatively short—it started paying a dividend in 2020—the path so far has been solid. Each year, the company has delivered a bump in its payout, backed by performance and not just management optimism.
The low payout ratio gives it a wide buffer against earnings volatility. Even if profits dip temporarily, Radian has enough margin to maintain its dividend without cutting into its operations or reserves. That’s exactly the kind of financial discipline that makes a company reliable over the long haul.
There’s no frantic pace here—just consistent, manageable increases that investors can count on. That slow and steady rhythm is often more valuable than the biggest yield.
Chart Analysis
Current Position in the Market Cycle
Looking at the chart for Radian Group Inc. (RDN), the price action reflects a clear transition from distribution to early markdown. The stock spent much of last summer in a tight consolidation range after a strong run-up during the first half of the year. That behavior, marked by choppy movement and multiple failed breakout attempts, fits the characteristics of a distribution phase.
The tipping point appears to have come around mid-October, when the 50-day moving average began turning down, crossing below the 200-day moving average in early February. That death cross is a classic signal of weakening momentum. The trend has since continued lower, and price action now sits beneath both moving averages—a textbook confirmation of markdown phase behavior.
Volume and RSI Behavior
Volume tells a subtle but important story. While there haven’t been massive capitulation spikes, the volume profile during the recent decline is noticeably heavier on red days. That suggests a slow but steady increase in selling pressure, with buyers unwilling to step in meaningfully to support the price. Volume during the earlier distribution period was also relatively balanced, which further supports the idea that the stock was being offloaded gradually by stronger hands.
The RSI has remained muted and trending below the midpoint line since early January, hovering closer to oversold territory without making a strong bounce. That reflects persistent bearish momentum and very little buying enthusiasm, even on green days. There’s no sign of a bullish divergence yet, so momentum remains firmly on the downside.
The Last Five Candles
The most recent five daily candles offer more detail on the current sentiment. All five show a clear drift downward with lower highs and lower lows. Three of those candles have visible upper wicks—suggesting attempts to rally during the session were sold into by the close. The most recent candle printed a small-bodied bar with an upper wick again, closing near the lows of the day, which indicates weak buying conviction.
Volume on these recent sessions has been relatively stable, but each red day shows higher volume than the green days, reinforcing the pattern of net selling.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support appears to be developing around the 30.50 to 30.80 zone, where buyers have stepped in previously. However, the consistent pressure and lack of a firm bounce raise the risk of a breakdown if broader market conditions don’t improve. On the upside, the declining 50-day moving average near 32.60 has become a resistance level, as has the psychological round number of 33.00.
This structure suggests that until volume picks up on an upward move with confirmation from momentum indicators like RSI, RDN is still under pressure within a markdown phase.
Analyst Ratings
📊 In February 2025, UBS Group adjusted its stance on Radian Group Inc. (RDN), keeping a neutral rating while nudging the price target from $33.00 up to $34.00. This subtle upward move reflects a cautiously optimistic view. Analysts acknowledged Radian’s stable fundamentals but signaled limited near-term catalysts. The higher target hints that while upside potential exists, it’s likely to be modest unless market sentiment improves or the housing environment turns more favorable.
🚀 Back in January 2025, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reaffirmed their outperform rating on the stock but made a minor adjustment to their price target, lowering it slightly from $41.00 to $40.00. This shows continued confidence in the company’s strategic direction and earnings power, even as short-term macroeconomic conditions add some pressure to valuations.
📈 Over on the credit side, Fitch made a more notable move in January by upgrading Radian’s long-term issuer rating from BBB to BBB+. The shift was driven by an improved capital position and resilient financial performance. This upgrade speaks to stronger internal balance sheet health and growing confidence in Radian’s risk management, especially within its mortgage insurance segment.
💬 As of March 2025, the consensus analyst price target for RDN stands at around $36.80. Price projections are currently ranging from a low of $33.00 to a high of $40.00. With the stock recently trading under $31, that average target suggests roughly 15% upside from current levels. While analyst sentiment leans neutral to mildly bullish, most appear to agree that Radian has room to run if it continues executing well and the broader housing market holds steady.
Earning Report Summary
Radian Group wrapped up 2024 on a solid note, showing the kind of steady performance that long-term investors appreciate. In the fourth quarter, the company posted $148 million in net income, which works out to $0.98 per share. That’s a bump up from the same quarter last year, when earnings came in at $0.91 per share. For the full year, Radian brought in $604 million in net income, staying consistent with its track record of profitability.
One of the highlights was the growth in its core mortgage insurance business. The total insurance in force hit $275 billion by the end of the year, a small but meaningful increase from the previous year. Persistency also held up well—over 83% of policies remained active, which signals strong customer retention in a market where turnover can be high.
On the cost side, Radian tightened things up. Operating expenses were down 8% compared to the year before, which shows that the company has been focused on running lean. The investment side of the business did its part too, delivering $71 million in income for the quarter with a yield just under 4%. That’s a solid return in a market that’s still sorting itself out post-rate hikes.
Not everything was perfect, though. There was a slight uptick in defaults, with around 24,000 loans in default by the end of the year. That pushed the portfolio’s default rate up to 2.44% from 2.20% the year before. It’s not a red flag yet, but something to keep an eye on. The company also took a $13 million impairment charge tied to some internal-use software and lease assets, which is part of a broader restructuring move in their HomeGenius business.
Despite a few bumps, Radian continued rewarding shareholders. Over the year, it returned $376 million through dividends and buybacks. And the book value per share climbed to $31.33, which is a nice 9% jump from last year.
In short, the company showed it can manage through changing conditions while continuing to grow value for its shareholders. It wasn’t a flashy quarter, but it was a steady one—and that kind of consistency often pays off in the long run.
Financial Health and Stability
Radian’s financials are built on solid ground. It’s running a profit margin just under 47%, with an operating margin over 75%. Those are strong numbers, especially for a company operating in a cyclical industry tied to real estate and lending.
Return on equity is north of 13%, and assets are being used efficiently, with a 7% return on assets. These aren’t flashy numbers, but they point to a business that knows how to generate profits without taking on excessive risk.
The debt picture is balanced too. Radian carries around $2.47 billion in debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of about 53%. At the same time, it has over half a billion in cash and a current ratio of more than 3. That gives it more than enough liquidity to handle downturns or capital needs without putting the dividend at risk.
One number that might raise some eyebrows is negative operating cash flow of around $664 million. But the more important figure for dividend investors—levered free cash flow—came in at a strong $580 million. That’s what really pays the bills and supports the dividend.
Valuation and Stock Performance
Here’s where things get interesting for value-minded investors. Radian is trading at around 8.3 times forward earnings and just a hair over book value. That’s a low bar for a company that continues to churn out profits and generate healthy returns.
Its price-to-sales ratio is around 3.9, and enterprise value to revenue is sitting at 5.4. Nothing in those numbers suggests overvaluation—in fact, it looks more like the market hasn’t paid much attention to the company at all.
Over the past year, the stock has barely moved, gaining less than 1%. Compare that to the double-digit gains in the broader S&P 500, and it’s clear Radian has been left behind. But for income-focused investors, that kind of stagnation isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A flat stock with a rising dividend can still deliver strong total returns over time.
Risks and Considerations
Like any financial services firm, Radian faces a few key risks that investors need to keep in mind. Its business is tightly tied to the housing market, which means interest rates, mortgage defaults, and home prices all play a role in performance.
If the economy slows or defaults start to climb, Radian could take a hit. That said, its conservative underwriting and strong capital position provide some cushion.
Also worth noting: about 10% of the float is sold short, and the short ratio is close to 9. That suggests there’s some skepticism baked into the current price—either from macro concerns or doubts about the company’s long-term growth story.
And while the dividend is growing, it’s still relatively new. For investors who prefer decades of dividend history, Radian might not make the cut just yet. But its early track record is promising.
Final Thoughts
Radian Group isn’t the kind of stock that dominates headlines or fuels speculative rallies—and that’s exactly what makes it appealing for dividend investors. With a stable 3.14% yield, a very manageable payout ratio, and the financial strength to support future increases, it offers a dependable stream of income without taking on too much risk.
This is the kind of stock that does its job quietly, rewarding patient investors with consistent returns. It might not impress at first glance, but dig a little deeper and there’s a solid case to be made for why Radian deserves a spot in a long-term income portfolio.