Updated 3/13/25
Popular, Inc. isn’t the kind of stock that’s always in the headlines. It doesn’t make waves with splashy product launches or headline-grabbing earnings calls. But for investors with a focus on dividends, this bank has quietly built a case for being a steady and reliable income generator.
Based in Puerto Rico and operating through its subsidiaries Banco Popular and Popular Bank in the U.S., the company has been around for well over a century. Its long track record, conservative management, and focus on financial stability make it a compelling option for investors who value consistency over flash. Let’s walk through what makes Popular stand out—and what you need to know if you’re looking for a dependable dividend payer.
Recent Events
Popular closed out 2024 on a strong note. Earnings surged, with net income reaching just over $612 million, and earnings per share climbing to $8.56. The company’s revenue also saw a healthy 12.4% year-over-year increase. That kind of growth isn’t common in regional banking, which tends to move at a slower, more measured pace.
One reason for the improvement? Rising interest rates, which have helped banks earn more on loans while still keeping deposit costs in check. Popular has done a good job of managing this spread, boosting profitability without overextending itself. The market took note—shares have inched up about 6% over the past year. Not a rocket ship, but a solid showing for a bank in today’s market environment.
Key Dividend Metrics
📈 Dividend Yield: 3.07%
💰 Annual Dividend: $2.80 per share
🔁 5-Year Average Yield: 2.83%
🧮 Payout Ratio: 29.91%
📅 Ex-Dividend Date: March 18, 2025
📦 Next Dividend Date: April 1, 2025
🚀 Recent Dividend Growth: Up from $2.56 to $2.80
Dividend Overview
Popular’s dividend isn’t huge, but it’s the kind of payout that you can count on. With a forward yield a touch over 3%, it offers a nice bit of income that’s comfortably above the broader market average. But what really stands out is how that dividend is backed by earnings.
The bank pays out less than 30% of its profits in dividends, which leaves plenty of room for both growth and flexibility. That kind of discipline means the dividend is less likely to be cut when the economy hits a rough patch. For investors who rely on steady income, that kind of reliability matters more than a sky-high yield.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Dividend growth is often overlooked, but it’s a critical piece of the income puzzle. Popular recently raised its dividend from $2.56 to $2.80, a 9% jump that keeps pace with inflation and then some. It’s not just a one-off either—the bank has a track record of gradually boosting its payout over time.
The low payout ratio and strong profitability suggest the dividend is well protected. Even if earnings take a hit, there’s enough cushion to keep distributions flowing. And with a beta of 0.79, the stock tends to move less than the overall market, offering a smoother ride for long-term holders.
Chart Analysis
Current Cycle and Market Phase
Looking at the one-year chart for Popular, Inc. (BPOP), it becomes clear that the stock recently completed a distribution phase and is now well into markdown territory. The price broke below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with notable downward acceleration in March. This breakdown, combined with the overall structure of the chart, fits within the Wyckoff cycle’s markdown phase, where previous buyers become sellers and price weakens through key support levels.
Prior to this breakdown, the stock had been trading sideways for months, showing classic signs of distribution. Several attempts to push higher failed to gain traction, and each rally was met with declining volume or sharp reversals. The moving averages began to compress and then roll over, signaling weakening demand and a lack of new accumulation.
Volume and Momentum
Volume has surged noticeably during the recent decline, especially over the last few sessions, suggesting increased selling pressure. This kind of volume spike following a distribution range often marks the early legs of a markdown phase, where institutional investors begin to offload positions in size. There’s a clear increase in red volume bars—indicative of heavier selling activity—especially compared to the prior months where volume was relatively flat.
The RSI has been dropping steadily and is now hovering near oversold territory, close to the 20 level. While technically oversold conditions can attract some buyers, the persistent downward momentum and strong volume selling into this dip hint that further downside could be likely unless strong support comes in soon.
Recent Candlestick Behavior
Looking at the last five trading sessions, each candle tells a story of increasing weakness:
- Five sessions ago, the candle showed a small body with a long upper wick, suggesting that buyers tried to push price higher intraday but were firmly rejected.
- Four sessions ago, a similar rejection occurred with a slightly larger body—again, indicating a failed attempt to reverse course.
- Three days ago, a long-bodied red candle broke below the 200-day moving average with heavy volume—this marked a significant technical breakdown.
- Two days ago, there was an attempt at a bounce, but the wick on the top side shows sellers quickly regained control.
- Most recently, the candle closed at the low of the day after testing a modest high, with a long upper shadow. That’s a sign of continued bearish sentiment and sellers hitting bids aggressively.
The wick formations and tight closes near session lows reflect strong selling conviction and a lack of buyers willing to step in with meaningful support.
Moving Averages and Trend Structure
The 50-day moving average is rolling downward and has crossed below the 200-day moving average—a bearish crossover that further confirms the transition into markdown. Price now sits clearly beneath both moving averages, and the distance from the 200-day line is widening, suggesting momentum is accelerating to the downside.
There’s also a clear breakdown from a long-standing trading range that formed between August and February. The support zone near $90 gave way decisively, with no strong bounce yet to speak of. The lower highs throughout this range hinted at weakening demand over time, which finally gave out under the weight of recent selling pressure.
The structure of the trend has shifted from accumulation and markup in mid-to-late 2023 into a flat distribution through winter, and now the markdown is in play. Price action has become more volatile with heavier down moves and lower closes, which often characterize this part of the cycle.
RSI and Momentum Shifts
The RSI moving below 30 and heading into the low 20s suggests extreme weakness. While technically this is the oversold zone, it doesn’t necessarily mean a bounce is imminent. Oversold can remain oversold in markdown phases for extended periods, especially when the broader market sentiment or fundamental narrative does not offer a counterbalance.
What’s more telling is the persistent drop in RSI without meaningful reversals, showing that momentum has firmly shifted into the hands of the bears. This complements the volume and price action, creating a more complete picture of downward pressure taking hold.
Analyst Ratings
📊 Analysts have been updating their views on Popular Inc. (BPOP) over the past few months, with a mix of upward revisions and steady optimism surrounding the stock’s longer-term potential.
🏦 As of late January, Wells Fargo maintained its “Equal-Weight” stance while nudging the price target up from $105 to $110. The tone here wasn’t overly bullish, but it showed recognition of Popular’s steady financial performance and improved earnings visibility.
📈 RBC Capital also weighed in around the same time with an “Outperform” rating, raising its target from $100 to $110. Their view leaned more positively, driven by strong profitability metrics and disciplined capital allocation.
🚀 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods came through with a notable boost, holding firm on their “Outperform” rating but lifting the target price sharply from $116 to $129. This upgrade reflects increasing confidence in Popular’s ability to drive consistent earnings growth in a higher-rate environment.
📉 UBS, entering the conversation a bit earlier in December, initiated coverage with a “Neutral” rating and a price target of $104. They seemed to acknowledge the company’s strength but suggested expectations may already be priced in.
💼 Barclays also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and edged their price target from $110 to $115. Their outlook pointed to solid fundamentals and a favorable risk-reward profile, especially compared to other regional bank peers.
🎯 Right now, the consensus price target across analysts sits around $113. That reflects modest upside from the current share price and a generally positive view on the company’s forward trajectory.
These recent updates show that while not every analyst is outright bullish, the general tone has shifted more constructive. Upward revisions in price targets suggest the market is starting to appreciate Popular’s steady performance, strong capital base, and commitment to delivering shareholder value—especially through consistent dividends and prudent balance sheet management.
Earning Report Summary
Popular, Inc. wrapped up 2024 on a solid note, delivering a fourth quarter that showed continued strength and steady progress. Net income came in at $177.8 million for Q4, up from $155.3 million in the previous quarter. For the full year, they pulled in $614.2 million, a nice improvement over last year’s total. On an adjusted basis, net income for the year reached $646.1 million, up around 10% from 2023, which shows they’re trending in the right direction.
One of the key bright spots was net interest income, which rose to $590.8 million in the quarter. That’s about $18 million more than Q3, driven by a stronger net interest margin, which improved to 3.35% from 3.24%. Essentially, they’re doing a better job of earning more from the money they lend out compared to what they’re paying to depositors.
Non-interest income, which includes things like service charges and mortgage fees, held steady at $164.7 million—just a slight bump from the previous quarter. Mortgage banking in particular seemed to carry a little more weight this time around.
Expenses were well controlled. Operating costs came in at $467.6 million, basically flat from Q3. That kind of discipline is always a good sign, especially when paired with growing income.
Credit quality continues to be one of Popular’s strong suits. Non-performing loans dropped by over $10 million, and the percentage of problem loans compared to total loans fell to 0.95%. They did see a slight rise in charge-offs, with net charge-offs climbing $8.9 million, but overall, the coverage for potential losses remains strong. Their loan loss reserve ratio of 2.01% and coverage of over 200% of non-performing loans shows they’re being cautious and well-prepared.
Total assets climbed to $73 billion, up $1.7 billion from the third quarter. Most of that growth came from increases in their loan book and investments. Deposits also grew, which is always reassuring in the current rate environment.
On the shareholder side, Popular bought back over 2.2 million shares in 2024 and increased its quarterly dividend from $0.62 to $0.70 per share. That kind of capital return, paired with a healthy balance sheet, is a good signal to long-term investors.
CEO Ignacio Alvarez called out the strength in loan growth and improving margins. He also emphasized their strong capital and liquidity positions, which allowed for both the buybacks and dividend boost. Heading into 2025, the company is focused on upgrading its customer experience and tech infrastructure—something he believes will keep the momentum going.
Financial Health and Stability
One of Popular’s strongest suits is its balance sheet. The company holds over $6.8 billion in cash, compared to just $1.3 billion in debt. That kind of cash position gives it a level of security that many peers can’t match.
Return on equity is a healthy 11.4%, and while return on assets is more modest at 0.85%, that’s typical for banks. What matters more is that Popular is generating solid returns without taking on too much risk.
Operating margin sits at 33%, which signals that the company is managing costs well and converting revenue into profit efficiently. Book value per share is $79.71, close to where the stock trades now. That suggests the market is valuing the business fairly, with no major premium or discount.
Valuation and Stock Performance
At just under $93 per share, BPOP is trading near its 200-day moving average. It’s also still off its 52-week high of around $107. In a market where many stocks have run far ahead of their fundamentals, Popular looks attractively priced.
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 10.67, while the forward P/E is even lower at 9.32. These aren’t flashy numbers, but they point to a stock that’s generating earnings without being overly expensive. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.34 and price-to-book of 1.14 also support the idea that this stock is reasonably valued.
Volume is moderate, with institutional ownership sitting above 91%. That level of professional interest helps provide a floor under the stock, and it suggests that long-term investors see value here.
Risks and Considerations
No investment is without its risks. As a regional bank, Popular is exposed to fluctuations in interest rates, changes in the regulatory environment, and potential credit losses. While the company is financially strong, it’s not immune to shifts in the broader economy, especially in its core market of Puerto Rico.
Also, while earnings have been growing, they could come under pressure if economic conditions worsen or if loan growth slows. Investors should keep an eye on how the company adapts to future rate cuts or increased competition in the banking space.
And while the dividend is well-covered today, any significant decline in earnings could narrow that cushion. So far, management has shown they’re prepared for a range of outcomes—but it’s something to watch.
Final Thoughts
Popular, Inc. doesn’t try to be the most exciting stock on the market—and that’s exactly why it may appeal to dividend-focused investors. The company has a long history, strong financials, and a dividend that’s well-supported by both earnings and cash flow.
For those looking to build a portfolio anchored by reliable income, BPOP offers a balance of yield, stability, and modest growth. It might not shoot the lights out in any one quarter, but over time, it’s the kind of name that tends to reward patience and discipline.
This isn’t a stock that will get talked up on trading forums or make headlines with speculative moves. It just delivers—quietly, consistently, and with a long-term mindset. And for dividend investors, that’s often exactly what matters most.