Key Takeaways
💵 ManpowerGroup offers a forward dividend yield of 3.39%, slightly above its five-year average, with a consistent history of modest dividend growth despite a temporarily high payout ratio.
💧 Cash flow has tightened, with TTM free cash flow turning slightly negative, though the company remains cash flow positive overall and continues to prioritize shareholder returns.
📊 Analysts maintain a hold consensus with a $49.90 average price target, reflecting cautious optimism after recent downgrades tied to earnings pressure and revenue declines.
Updated 5/30/25
ManpowerGroup, a global leader in staffing and workforce solutions, operates across more than 75 countries with a portfolio that spans temporary and permanent recruitment, workforce management, and talent development. Led by CEO Jonas Prising, the company combines decades of experience with a strategic focus on digital transformation and innovation. Despite recent earnings pressure, leadership continues to steer the business with a disciplined approach to cost, operational efficiency, and long-term positioning.
The stock has experienced a significant pullback over the past year, trading down more than 40% from its highs. Yet with a forward dividend yield over 3%, improving free cash flow projections, and modest upside from current analyst price targets, ManpowerGroup remains on the radar for dividend-focused investors willing to navigate its cyclical nature.
Recent Events
The past year hasn’t been easy for ManpowerGroup or its shareholders. The stock has taken a steep tumble, down more than 43% over the last 12 months. Shares are now trading around $42, well off the 52-week high of $78. Those losses aren’t just the result of market mood—they reflect real operational headwinds.
Revenue dropped 7.1% year over year in the most recent quarter. Earnings? They’ve plummeted by nearly 86%. These kinds of numbers can spook short-term traders, but for long-term income investors, they offer important context rather than panic.
There’s definitely pressure. Operating margins are sitting just above 1%, which is razor-thin for a company of this size. But the company is still cash flow positive, which is critical for supporting dividend payouts. Levered free cash flow was a modest $151 million, and they’re holding close to $400 million in cash. It’s not a fortress balance sheet, but it’s not crumbling either.
Through it all, the company has kept the dividend moving forward. And that says something.
Key Dividend Metrics
📈 Forward Yield: 3.39%
💰 Annual Dividend: $1.44
🛑 Payout Ratio: 132.76%
📅 Ex-Dividend Date: June 2, 2025
📉 5-Year Average Yield: 3.43%
📊 Dividend Coverage: Tight, but holding
These numbers tell a clear story. The forward yield is sitting just under three and a half percent, which is above the company’s historical average. That could be a sign of earnings pressure, or it could signal an undervalued entry point. In reality, it’s a bit of both. The payout ratio is high—over 130%—and that definitely deserves attention. But a few rough quarters don’t necessarily mean a dividend cut is coming.
MAN’s cash flow is still covering the dividend. That makes a difference. The next payout is on the calendar for June 16, and there hasn’t been any hint of a reduction. Even during tougher economic environments, the company has shown a steady hand when it comes to shareholder returns.
Dividend Overview
At today’s price, the stock offers a yield that should catch the eye of any income-oriented investor. The 3.39% forward yield is generous, particularly when you consider how stable it’s been over time. The five-year average sits just a tick higher, so this isn’t a fluke—this is what the company aims to deliver.
What’s unusual here is how the current yield is being driven more by the drop in share price than a bump in the dividend. That distinction is important. When yields rise because of stock price weakness, it usually means investors are nervous about earnings. And in MAN’s case, there’s reason for caution.
That said, the company has managed its dividend well. The payout schedule is predictable. There haven’t been any dramatic increases or cuts—just steady, deliberate returns. The board clearly values dividend consistency, and that’s something investors can rely on in uncertain times.
Cash flow has been enough to fund those payouts, and there’s no sign that the company is borrowing to make up the difference. That matters more than headline earnings when it comes to dividends. If free cash flow dries up, then the dividend is at risk. But as of now, the math works.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Here’s where things get interesting. The dividend is holding steady, but it’s not exactly sitting on rock-solid ground. The payout ratio being over 130% isn’t ideal. It means the company is paying out more than it earns on a per-share basis. But again, it’s important to look at the cash flow. There’s still room there, at least for now.
Over the past several years, ManpowerGroup has made a habit of modest dividend increases. They’re not aggressive, but they’re consistent. That kind of slow-and-steady growth suits many dividend portfolios just fine. The 3.39% yield doesn’t need a 10% hike every year—it needs sustainability.
That said, dividend safety depends on earnings recovering. With EPS currently at $2.32 and the annual dividend at $1.44, there’s not a lot of cushion. If earnings don’t improve soon, the company may need to hit pause on any future increases, or possibly reevaluate the current level. But management seems committed to maintaining it, especially given the company’s long history of stable payouts.
The balance sheet, while not pristine, supports that outlook. Debt to equity is around 70%, which is manageable. Cash reserves are solid, and interest costs aren’t eating up all the income. It’s a situation where they can continue paying the dividend without digging a deeper financial hole.
What investors need to remember is that ManpowerGroup operates in a very cyclical industry. When economic activity slows, hiring slows. When hiring slows, MAN feels the pain. But the flipside is also true. When things turn around—and they will eventually—ManpowerGroup rebounds quickly. That means the dividend could look safer a few quarters from now than it does today.
This is a name for investors who understand cycles and are willing to ride through them. There’s risk here, but there’s also the potential for a steady stream of income if the business stabilizes. For now, the dividend is holding, and management hasn’t blinked.
Cash Flow Statement
ManpowerGroup’s trailing twelve-month cash flow paints a picture of tightened operations and shrinking liquidity flexibility. Operating cash flow came in at just $40 million over the period, a sharp drop from the $309 million posted in 2023 and well off the $644 million from 2021. The trend is consistent with broader earnings pressure and signals how the company’s core cash-generating ability has weakened alongside slower hiring trends globally.
Free cash flow turned negative in the TTM, down to -$13 million, following a multi-year streak of strong positive figures. Financing activities continued to be a consistent outflow, with nearly $180 million leaving the company in the latest period, mostly due to dividend payments and modest debt repayments. While there was a small amount of new debt issued—just under $30 million—it didn’t meaningfully alter the downward trajectory in the company’s overall cash position, which ended at $392 million, down from $509 million the year prior.
Analyst Ratings
📉 ManpowerGroup has faced several analyst downgrades recently, as sentiment around its earnings outlook and macroeconomic exposure has shifted. On April 21, 2025, BMO Capital Markets trimmed its price target from $54 to $48 while keeping a “market perform” rating. Truist Financial followed suit the same day, pulling its target down from $55 to $48 and maintaining a “hold” outlook. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also adjusted its target lower, moving from $65 to $50 with a “neutral” rating. UBS Group narrowed its expectations as well, reducing its target from $63 to $57 while staying “neutral.” These cuts stem largely from a noticeable 5% drop in revenue and a weaker earnings per share outlook, compounded by expectations for continued softness in demand in the near term.
🟡 Not every analyst is turning bearish. Barclays took a more balanced approach by upgrading ManpowerGroup from “underweight” to “equal weight” on April 10, 2025, and revised its price target up to $50. The overall analyst consensus has now settled at a “hold” rating, with a 12-month average price target sitting near $49.90. That suggests limited but possible upside from where the stock currently trades, reflecting a cautious but not entirely negative stance from the street.
Earning Report Summary
A Soft Start to the Year
ManpowerGroup’s first quarter of 2025 wasn’t easy, and they didn’t shy away from acknowledging it. Earnings came in at just $0.12 per share, well below what the company posted a year ago. Even after adjusting for one-time items like restructuring charges and taxes, the adjusted EPS was $0.44. That’s still down more than half from the same period last year. Revenue followed a similar trend, landing at $4.1 billion, which was a 5% drop when measured in constant currency. Organically, excluding certain items, revenue was down about 2%.
This uneven performance was mostly tied to weakness in Europe and North America. Some bright spots did emerge—Latin America and Asia Pacific posted growth, which helped offset the overall slowdown. In the U.S., the Manpower brand actually grew by 7%, while Talent Solutions managed a modest 3% gain. But Experis saw a 2% decline. Europe told a more difficult story. France slipped 8%, Germany and the UK also struggled, and Northern Europe as a whole saw revenue fall 14%. Italy stood out with a 5% gain, though it wasn’t enough to counter the broader softness in the region.
Leadership’s Take and What’s Ahead
Despite the tough numbers, leadership kept a steady tone. They pointed to their ongoing efforts to stay close to clients and adapt to shifts in labor demand. Executives emphasized that while parts of the business have slowed, especially permanent placements, staffing margins across most major markets are still holding up well. Gross profit margins came in at 17.1%, which suggests underlying strength even in a soft environment.
The company took additional cost-cutting steps during the quarter, aiming to stay lean while demand remains sluggish. They also bought back $25 million worth of stock—an indicator they still see long-term value in the business, even if the short-term picture looks cloudy.
Looking into the next quarter, ManpowerGroup expects earnings to land between $0.65 and $0.75 per share. That includes a small benefit from currency exchange and reflects their current tax expectations. Their focus remains on diversifying their offerings, pushing digital transformation, and keeping their operations flexible. In a market where hiring trends can shift quickly, they’re positioning themselves to respond just as fast.
Management Team
ManpowerGroup’s leadership brings a strong blend of operational experience and strategic foresight. Leading the company is Jonas Prising, Chairman and CEO since 2014, who has been with ManpowerGroup for over two decades. His deep industry knowledge and global perspective have shaped the company’s response to both growth cycles and downturns. Prising has consistently emphasized the value of aligning business needs with workforce transformation, and under his leadership, the company continues to adapt to shifts in global labor demand.
The executive bench supporting him is equally experienced. Jack McGinnis, the company’s CFO, keeps a steady focus on cost control and cash management—especially important during uncertain periods like the present. Becky Frankiewicz, overseeing North America and also serving as Chief Commercial Officer, drives operational execution in one of the company’s most critical regions. Michelle Nettles, as Chief People and Legal Officer, ensures the company’s cultural values and legal integrity remain strong across borders. Their combined leadership keeps ManpowerGroup agile, responsive, and mission-driven, even as external conditions fluctuate.
Valuation and Stock Performance
ManpowerGroup’s stock has seen a sharp pullback over the past year, currently trading just above $42 per share. That marks a notable drop from the 52-week high of $78, reflecting a decline of over 40 percent. This price action signals investor caution, especially given slowing demand in key regions and the earnings volatility seen in recent quarters.
Looking at valuation, the stock appears inexpensive relative to historical norms and broader industry averages. The trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio sits around 18, while the forward-looking P/E ratio is closer to 14. A price-to-book ratio under 1.0 also stands out—it suggests that shares are trading below the company’s net asset value, a potential signal of market undervaluation if the fundamentals stabilize.
The average analyst price target hovers near $50, offering a modest upside from where the stock is now. That expectation hinges on an eventual turnaround in hiring trends and corporate demand for staffing services. Investors seem to be waiting for clear evidence that the worst of the earnings pressure is in the rearview mirror.
Risks and Considerations
Owning shares in ManpowerGroup carries exposure to a number of meaningful risks. Chief among them is its reliance on economic cycles. When business activity slows and companies freeze hiring, staffing providers like ManpowerGroup feel it immediately. This inherent cyclicality makes earnings more volatile during periods of uncertainty or global contraction.
There’s also exposure to currency risk. With operations in over 75 countries, the company’s revenue and expenses move with international exchange rates. While management does hedge some of that risk, it’s not a perfect buffer. Sharp moves in the euro, yen, or other major currencies can influence reported earnings.
Another growing challenge is how quickly technology is reshaping job markets. The rise of AI and automation is accelerating change across industries. Sectors that were once major revenue sources for staffing—like software engineering or data entry—are evolving, and in some cases shrinking, due to automation. ManpowerGroup needs to constantly recalibrate where and how it provides workforce solutions to stay relevant.
Regulatory shifts, especially in labor laws, create additional unpredictability. Employment rules differ widely across geographies, and even small changes in compliance laws can ripple across margins and operating models. As the company looks to maintain consistency and avoid legal pitfalls, the ability to navigate these local frameworks becomes critical.
Final Thoughts
ManpowerGroup is in a transitional moment. The current operating environment is testing the company’s resilience, but its management team and financial foundation provide tools to weather this cycle. The stock may not be riding high at the moment, but valuation metrics suggest a level of pessimism that might not fully account for the company’s longer-term positioning.
The key for investors is to balance today’s pressures with tomorrow’s potential. As labor markets recalibrate and businesses adjust their workforce strategies, demand for flexible staffing and global talent solutions is likely to return. How well ManpowerGroup executes its strategy to innovate, diversify, and digitize will determine whether it simply survives the downturn—or emerges stronger on the other side.