Last Update 5/8/25
Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY), a Texas-based regional bank, has quietly delivered strong financial results, steady dividend growth, and stable stock performance. With a current market cap of over \$440 million, it offers a forward dividend yield of 2.54% and a low payout ratio of 33%. The bank’s recent earnings highlighted a growing net interest margin, healthy returns on equity and assets, and a consistent track record of profitability.
Led by a deeply experienced management team, Guaranty has focused on community-based banking while maintaining conservative financial practices. The stock has gained over 30% in the past year and still trades at modest valuation levels, with a trailing P/E of 13.5 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.37. For income-focused investors, GNTY provides a reliable dividend, disciplined leadership, and consistent earnings, all supported by strong fundamentals and a well-capitalized balance sheet.
Recent Events
GNTY just wrapped up another strong quarter. Earnings per share for the trailing twelve months landed at $2.91, with net income touching $33.5 million. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but for a community bank, they’re impressively consistent. Revenue grew 10.2% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings growth came in at 29.2%—clear signs that the bank is executing well, even in a somewhat uncertain economic backdrop.
What’s working? Solid interest income and tight control over costs, mainly. Return on assets sits at 1.07%, while return on equity came in at 10.59%. These are healthy profitability levels, especially considering GNTY isn’t loading up on risk to hit these marks.
The balance sheet tells a similarly reassuring story. With more than $217 million in cash and just over $101 million in debt, liquidity isn’t a concern. And the bank’s conservative lending strategy helps shield it from the kinds of credit issues that can surprise more aggressive peers.
The market has responded. Shares have rallied to near $40, climbing from a 52-week low around $27. Despite that move, GNTY still trades at valuation levels that don’t scream “overheated.” That combination—price appreciation without excessive multiple expansion—makes for a compelling setup for dividend investors looking for sustainability over spectacle.
💰 Key Dividend Metrics
📈 Forward Dividend Yield: 2.54%
📉 Trailing Dividend Yield: 2.45%
💵 Annual Dividend: $1.00 per share
🧾 Payout Ratio: 33.33%
📊 5-Year Average Yield: 2.64%
📅 Most Recent Dividend Date: April 9, 2025
⏰ Ex-Dividend Date: March 31, 2025
Dividend Overview
Guaranty Bancshares has been steady with its dividends, offering investors a payout that, while not high-yield, comes with a sense of confidence. The current dividend yield is right in the mid-2% range, and it’s backed by more than sufficient earnings. A 33% payout ratio gives the bank room to either grow the dividend or build capital, depending on what conditions call for.
This isn’t a stock trying to dazzle with an unsustainable yield. It’s offering a measured return that investors can rely on, quarter after quarter. What makes it even more attractive is that the dividend doesn’t depend on financial gymnastics or outsized debt. It’s paid for the old-fashioned way—through real profits.
And it’s been that way for a while. There’s no history of dividend cuts, and the board has shown discipline in keeping increases tied to actual earnings growth. That kind of responsible approach helps reduce uncertainty for income-focused investors.
🛡️ Dividend Growth and Safety
The growth outlook for the dividend looks promising. GNTY’s earnings are trending up, and with the current payout ratio as low as it is, there’s room to boost the dividend over time without compromising the business or balance sheet.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s backing the payout. The bank generated $59 million in operating cash flow over the past year, more than enough to support its dividend. Debt levels are modest, and capital ratios look healthy. With a book value per share at $28.64, the stock’s price is anchored by tangible value.
It also helps that GNTY’s stock doesn’t bounce around too much. With a five-year beta of just 0.43, this is a low-volatility name, which fits the profile for dividend-focused investors who value predictability over drama. The share count is stable, and insider ownership stands at over 22%, suggesting alignment between management and shareholders.
Don’t expect flashy dividend hikes every year—but do expect continued growth as long as the business continues executing like it has. The model here is disciplined and conservative, and in the current market, that’s a virtue.
Cash Flow Statement
Guaranty Bancshares generated $47.4 million in operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months, showing consistent strength in its core banking operations. That figure is up from the prior year and reflects a stable stream of earnings from traditional lending and deposit-taking activities. Free cash flow, which strips out capital expenditures, came in at $44.1 million—more than enough to comfortably cover dividends and leave room for retained earnings. Capital spending remains modest at just $3.3 million, underscoring the company’s conservative investment approach.
Investing activities added a net $107.7 million in cash, largely due to the liquidation or maturity of investments—an expected move as banks adjust their balance sheets amid shifting interest rate conditions. Financing cash flow was negative $98.7 million, driven by significant debt repayments totaling $1.75 billion, outpacing new debt issuance. The bank also returned capital through share repurchases and dividend payments. Overall, the cash position strengthened, rising to nearly $146 million at the end of the period, compared to just under $90 million a year earlier. This cash build, paired with healthy free cash flow, speaks to GNTY’s solid liquidity and operational discipline.
Analyst Ratings
Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY) has recently drawn a variety of views from analysts, pointing to a balance of cautious optimism and sector-wide prudence.
🏦 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised their price target to $43.00, keeping a “Market Perform” rating in place. Their move reflects confidence in the bank’s steady earnings stream and its conservative approach to risk, particularly as many regional banks navigate shifting interest rate conditions. The firm cited consistent loan performance and stable deposit growth as reasons to support their updated view.
📉 Meanwhile, Piper Sandler took a more reserved stance, trimming their price target down to $30.00 and maintaining a “Neutral” rating. Their rationale centers around broader headwinds for the banking industry, including margin pressures and potential softness in commercial lending. While not a reflection of any major weakness specific to GNTY, it suggests a more tempered near-term outlook based on macroeconomic factors.
📊 The consensus price target among analysts currently stands at $41.50. The high target is $43.00, and the low sits at $40.00. This tight range shows that analysts largely agree on GNTY’s valuation, viewing it as a solid operator in its space with limited downside risk but also moderate upside in the current environment.
Earnings Report Summary
Guaranty Bancshares started the year on a solid note, delivering a first-quarter report that showed steady performance and a few encouraging trends. Net income came in at $8.6 million, which translates to $0.76 per share. While that’s down slightly from the prior quarter’s $0.88, it’s a clear improvement from the same time last year, when the bank earned $0.58 per share. Return on assets was 1.13% and return on equity reached 10.83%, both respectable numbers that reflect a stable, profitable quarter.
Interest Margins on the Rise
One of the standout areas was net interest margin, which increased to 3.70%. That’s up from 3.54% in the fourth quarter and well above the 3.16% mark from a year ago. The boost came from stronger yields on loans and a meaningful dip in what the bank is paying on interest-bearing deposits. Deposit costs fell to 2.83%, down from 3.07% last quarter—a helpful shift in a banking environment where funding costs have been tough on margins.
A Mixed Bag in Noninterest Income
Noninterest income was a bit softer this quarter, landing at $5.0 million compared to $5.7 million in the previous period. That drop was mainly due to fewer gains on loan sales and lower mortgage fee activity. Still, there were a few bright spots. Card-related fees ticked higher, helped in part by a one-time bonus payment from a card partner. It wasn’t enough to fully offset the other declines, but it showed that the bank’s fee income remains diverse.
Expenses Edge Higher with Growth
Operating expenses moved up to $21.2 million from $19.9 million. A good portion of that was tied to higher compensation, particularly bonus-related payroll taxes and retirement contributions. It’s the kind of spending that signals the bank is investing in its team. There were also some increases tied to facilities—most notably with the opening of a new branch in Georgetown, Texas. While these kinds of costs do weigh on the near-term, they also point to a longer-term growth mindset.
Asset Quality Holding Strong
Credit quality continued to look healthy. Nonperforming assets were just 0.15% of total assets, slightly better than last quarter. The bank actually reversed $300,000 in loan loss provisions, which suggests management sees very limited credit concerns on the horizon. That’s a good sign, especially with lingering economic uncertainty in some parts of the banking landscape.
All in all, the quarter was steady. Guaranty Bancshares didn’t blow the doors off with flashy growth numbers, but they did show they’re managing costs, keeping credit clean, and finding ways to widen margins—a combination most long-term investors can appreciate.
Management Team
Guaranty Bancshares is led by a team that brings a combination of experience, local insight, and measured strategic planning. At the helm is CEO Ty Abston, who has been with the company for over 20 years. His leadership has been a defining feature of the bank’s long-term growth and its commitment to sound, community-based banking. He understands the markets GNTY serves and has successfully guided the company through both expansion cycles and challenging periods in the broader banking environment.
The rest of the executive leadership has a similarly grounded approach. Most of the team has been with the bank for many years, building a culture that favors stability, risk control, and strong customer relationships. That continuity has helped Guaranty maintain a conservative credit posture and deliver consistent results without chasing risky growth. Their focus remains on building shareholder value through fundamentals rather than aggressive expansion or headline-making deals.
Valuation and Stock Performance
The stock has seen strong momentum recently, rising over 30 percent in the past year and now trading around $39 per share. Despite the gains, valuation remains well within reason. Guaranty Bancshares trades at roughly 13.5 times trailing earnings and just over 1.3 times book value. These are not premium multiples, particularly given the bank’s track record of earnings consistency and dividend reliability.
Its price-to-sales ratio sits at 3.81, a reflection of efficient revenue generation and solid margins. Unlike many regional banks that depend heavily on growing their loan book just to maintain profitability, GNTY has shown it can improve the bottom line without taking on excess risk. Their performance is driven by disciplined cost control, healthy spreads, and selective growth—traits that support long-term value rather than short bursts of expansion.
The stock’s beta of 0.43 signals relatively low volatility. That matters for income investors looking to avoid big price swings while collecting regular dividends. GNTY’s performance has been less correlated with the broader market, which offers a smoother ride for shareholders. This combination of low beta, strong fundamentals, and a reliable dividend has made it a compelling choice for investors seeking income with stability.
Risks and Considerations
While Guaranty Bancshares has built a solid foundation, it’s not without its share of risks. Regional banks like GNTY can be vulnerable to shifts in the local economy, and since its footprint is heavily concentrated in Texas, any slowdown in key industries or regional real estate could affect loan demand and asset quality.
Interest rate movements remain another key factor. GNTY has benefited from the recent rise in rates, with margins widening over the past few quarters. However, a reversal in rates, or an extended period of low-rate pressure, could weigh on earnings. The bank’s ability to adjust deposit pricing helped last quarter, but these advantages can only stretch so far in a flat or declining rate environment.
There’s also the question of scalability. As a smaller player in a competitive market, GNTY doesn’t have the same access to tech or marketing budgets that larger peers enjoy. Maintaining its community bank feel is part of its appeal, but the challenge will be to balance that with the growing need for digital banking capabilities. If it falls behind in innovation or customer experience, it could lose ground to bigger banks or fintechs.
Lastly, regulatory challenges are ever-present. While Guaranty has maintained compliance and avoided major issues, new regulations or capital requirements could force smaller banks to absorb added costs or adjust strategies more quickly than larger institutions. Credit losses remain low, but any material shift in loan performance could impact earnings faster than anticipated.
Final Thoughts
Guaranty Bancshares has carved out a reliable niche, focusing on sound banking principles and long-term relationships. The leadership team has remained consistent, the financial strategy remains conservative, and the results have reflected that disciplined approach.
The dividend is well-supported, and the payout ratio leaves room for gradual increases over time. It’s not a high-yield name, but it offers something more valuable to many long-term investors—predictability. The current valuation doesn’t look stretched, even after a solid run, and the earnings trajectory remains favorable. While there are macro risks to consider, particularly around interest rates and economic conditions in its core markets, the bank seems well-prepared to navigate them.
For investors who prioritize stability, capital preservation, and income, Guaranty Bancshares continues to deliver a profile that fits. It’s the kind of bank that rewards patience and consistency over time.