Updated 3/10/25
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: GNTY) is a regional bank holding company that has built a solid reputation in Texas, serving both businesses and individuals through its subsidiary, Guaranty Bank & Trust. While it may not be a household name like some of the larger banks, it has quietly delivered consistent results and maintained a steady dividend for its shareholders.
For investors focused on income, GNTY offers a reliable dividend with room for growth. The company’s financial health, conservative payout ratio, and long-term stability make it an interesting pick in the regional banking sector. Let’s take a closer look at how this bank stacks up for dividend-focused investors.
Key Dividend Metrics
📈 Dividend Yield: 2.42%
💵 Annual Dividend: $0.96 per share
📊 5-Year Average Dividend Yield: 2.65%
🔄 Payout Ratio: 35.04%
📆 Last Dividend Payment: January 8, 2025
🚨 Ex-Dividend Date: December 30, 2024
Dividend Overview
Guaranty Bancshares has built a reputation as a steady dividend payer. The current yield of 2.42% is solid for a regional bank, though it’s slightly below the company’s five-year average of 2.65%. That said, the dividend payout is well-covered, with only 35% of earnings being distributed to shareholders.
What stands out is the company’s consistent approach. GNTY isn’t the kind of stock that will surprise you with massive dividend hikes, but it also won’t put investors on edge with payout cuts. Instead, it offers a steady, sustainable source of income—exactly what many dividend-focused investors are looking for.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Over the years, Guaranty Bancshares has taken a measured approach to dividend increases. While its growth rate isn’t aggressive, it has been consistent, which is key for long-term income investors. Given the bank’s strong financials, there’s plenty of room for dividends to continue growing at a steady pace.
One of the best signs of dividend safety is the payout ratio, and at just 35%, GNTY leaves itself plenty of flexibility. This means the company has enough earnings to not only cover dividends but also reinvest in its operations and absorb any potential downturns in the economy.
Additional factors that point to a healthy dividend include:
- A return on equity of 10.11%, showing the company is effectively using its capital
- A profit margin of 26.1%, indicating solid earnings stability
- A strong cash position of $145.96 million, providing a buffer for future payments
With earnings growing at a strong pace (up 70.4% year-over-year in the most recent quarter), there’s little concern about the sustainability of the dividend.
Chart Analysis
Overall Trend
The stock price of Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY) has been in a clear uptrend over the past year. For much of the earlier period on this chart, the stock was relatively flat, trading close to the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, around mid-year, the price began making higher highs and higher lows, signaling a shift in momentum.
One of the most notable moves happened in early 2025, when the stock broke out sharply to the upside. The rapid increase pushed the price well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, creating a strong bullish divergence. Since then, the stock has maintained its elevated levels, though it appears to be consolidating just below its recent highs.
Moving Averages
The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending upwards and remains well above the 200-day moving average, confirming a bullish trend. When shorter-term moving averages stay above longer-term ones, it typically suggests that buyers are in control.
The 200-day moving average is also steadily climbing, reinforcing the longer-term strength of the stock. It now sits well below the current price, meaning that even if the stock experiences a pullback, there’s strong technical support at lower levels.
Volume Analysis
Looking at the volume bars, there was a major spike in trading activity during the breakout phase in early 2025. That surge in volume confirmed that buyers were stepping in aggressively. Since then, volume has tapered off, though it remains at healthy levels.
A decline in volume while a stock consolidates is common, as traders wait for a new catalyst. If volume picks up again and the price moves higher, it could suggest another leg up. On the flip side, if volume increases but the stock moves lower, it might indicate that sellers are starting to take control.
RSI and Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the bottom of the chart has been hovering in a moderate range. It peaked in overbought territory during the breakout but has since cooled off. That’s a healthy sign, as it suggests the stock is taking a breather rather than experiencing a full-blown reversal.
RSI is neither in the danger zone of being overbought nor in oversold territory, meaning there’s still room for the stock to move in either direction. If RSI starts climbing again, it could be an early signal of renewed buying pressure. Conversely, if it drops toward the lower range, it might indicate that selling momentum is picking up.
Recent Price Action
Looking at the latest five candles, the stock has been moving within a narrow range, with some upper wicks forming. That suggests some selling pressure at the higher levels, meaning buyers may be struggling to push the price up further for now. However, there hasn’t been any major breakdown either, which shows that demand is still present.
The most recent candle closed near the middle of its range, hinting at some indecision in the market. If the stock starts making higher closes with stronger volume, it could confirm another bullish move. If it breaks below key support levels, traders might see some short-term weakness before a potential recovery.
Analyst Ratings
📊 Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY) has recently been the subject of mixed analyst evaluations, reflecting both optimism and caution. The stock currently holds a consensus rating of “Hold,” based on recent assessments. The average twelve-month price target is $37.33, with individual targets ranging from $30.00 to $42.00.
🔼 Upgrades
📈 In recent months, GNTY has received positive attention from analysts. One notable upgrade came when an investment firm raised its price target to $36 from $34 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The reasoning behind this upgrade was tied to the company’s strong earnings performance, which exceeded expectations in the most recent quarter. Analysts highlighted the bank’s stable loan portfolio and strong revenue growth as key drivers behind the improved outlook.
🔽 Downgrades
📉 On the other hand, GNTY has also faced some downgrades. A well-known research firm downgraded the stock to “Market Perform” from “Outperform,” citing concerns about tightening net interest margins and increased competition within the regional banking sector. Analysts expressed caution over the potential for profitability pressure as interest rates fluctuate and lending conditions evolve.
📌 These mixed analyst opinions highlight the importance of looking beyond ratings alone. While some see strong financial performance supporting further gains, others remain cautious about the impact of changing market conditions. Investors should weigh both perspectives when evaluating the stock’s long-term potential.
Earnings Report Summary
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. wrapped up the fourth quarter of 2024 with strong financial results, showing solid growth in both earnings and efficiency. The bank reported net income of $10 million, or $0.88 per share, which was a nice jump from $7.4 million ($0.65 per share) in the previous quarter and a big leap from $5.9 million ($0.51 per share) a year ago. For the full year, earnings totaled $31.5 million, a slight increase from $30 million in 2023.
One of the biggest highlights was the improvement in net interest margin, which climbed to 3.54% in the fourth quarter. That’s up from 3.33% in the previous quarter and 3.11% a year ago. This boost came from lower costs on interest-bearing liabilities and better returns from the bank’s loan and securities portfolios. For the full year, the net interest margin averaged 3.32%, compared to 3.15% in 2023.
On the noninterest income side, the bank saw a 19.4% increase, reaching $5.7 million for the quarter. A big chunk of this came from a one-time gain of $467,000 from selling a commercial property in Austin, Texas, along with rental income from properties in Bryan, Texas.
At the same time, noninterest expenses came down by 7.1%, totaling $19.9 million compared to $21.4 million a year ago. Most of that savings came from lower employee compensation costs and a reduction in legal and professional fees. However, occupancy costs went up slightly due to new leases and higher property taxes.
The bank’s balance sheet remains in solid shape, with total assets at $3.12 billion, slightly up from the previous quarter. Loans saw a small dip of $5.4 million, bringing the total to $2.13 billion, largely due to stricter lending standards and softer loan demand. On the other hand, deposits grew by $23.3 million for the quarter and $58.9 million for the full year, bringing total deposits to $2.69 billion.
Asset quality was another bright spot, with nonperforming assets down to just 0.16% of total assets, a big improvement from 0.66% in the prior quarter. The bank also kept loan losses low and maintained a solid allowance for credit losses at 1.33% of total loans.
Operationally, things improved as well. The efficiency ratio came in at 62.23%, a big step up from 74.81% a year ago, meaning the bank is running more efficiently. Return on assets reached 1.27%, while return on equity climbed to 12.68%, both up from the prior quarter.
All in all, Guaranty Bancshares closed out 2024 on a strong note, with solid earnings growth, improved margins, and steady deposit gains. The numbers show a bank that’s managing its balance sheet well while keeping an eye on efficiency and profitability.
Financial Health and Stability
Guaranty Bancshares operates with a conservative financial approach, which is a plus for income investors. Unlike some banks that rely heavily on debt, GNTY maintains a manageable debt load of $72.99 million and has significant cash reserves.
A key indicator of financial strength is book value per share, which sits at $27.86. This gives investors a sense of the company’s underlying worth and suggests that the stock is trading at a fair premium relative to its assets.
The bank’s revenue has also been on the rise, up 12.5% year-over-year, which points to continued growth potential. Even in uncertain economic times, GNTY has shown resilience, largely due to its strong presence in local markets and its prudent approach to lending.
Valuation and Stock Performance
Currently trading at $38.42 per share, Guaranty Bancshares has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.46. This valuation is in line with historical norms, reflecting the market’s confidence in the company’s earnings stability.
Compared to its book value, the stock carries a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.42, meaning investors are paying a slight premium over the bank’s tangible assets. This isn’t unusual for a well-managed regional bank, and it suggests that investors view GNTY as a steady performer rather than a deeply discounted value play.
The stock has moved within a 52-week range of $27.01 to $42.95, meaning it’s closer to the middle of its trading range. With a 50-day moving average of $38.65 and a 200-day moving average of $34.50, the stock has shown stability, though it has experienced some recent fluctuations.
Risks and Considerations
Like any investment, Guaranty Bancshares comes with risks. One of the biggest factors affecting banks is interest rate movement. As a regional bank, GNTY relies on net interest margins, meaning that if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts rates, profitability could take a hit.
The bank is also closely tied to the Texas economy, which, while strong, is still vulnerable to downturns in industries like oil and gas. If economic conditions weaken in key markets, loan demand could slow, and defaults could rise, pressuring earnings and dividend growth.
Another consideration is dividend growth versus inflation. While GNTY has a stable dividend, its growth rate may not always outpace inflation. Investors looking for rapid dividend increases might find better options elsewhere.
On the ownership side, insiders hold about 24.91% of shares, which is a strong signal that management believes in the company. Institutional ownership is lower, at 29.35%, which can mean the stock is more volatile since it doesn’t have as many large-scale investors providing stability.
Final Thoughts
Guaranty Bancshares is a solid choice for dividend investors who prioritize stability over high yields. Its 2.42% yield may not be the highest available, but it’s well-supported by strong earnings, low payout ratios, and a conservative financial approach.
For investors looking for steady income without excessive risk, GNTY presents an attractive option. It may not be a high-growth stock, but it offers reliability, a quality that’s often undervalued in income investing. With a healthy balance sheet, consistent earnings, and room for future dividend increases, it’s a bank worth keeping on the radar.
As always, investors should consider their personal goals and risk tolerance before making any decisions.
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