3/8/25

Evercore Inc. (EVR) operates as an independent investment banking advisory firm, helping clients navigate mergers, acquisitions, restructuring, and strategic financial decisions. Unlike massive Wall Street banks with multiple revenue streams, Evercore focuses primarily on advisory services. That specialization gives it a strong foothold in high-profile deals, but it also means revenue can ebb and flow depending on market conditions.

For dividend investors, the appeal of Evercore isn’t just about the payouts—it’s about stability and long-term growth. The big question is whether this stock can keep delivering reliable income while continuing to grow in value. Let’s dive in.

Key Dividend Metrics

📈 Dividend Yield: 1.55% (Forward)
💰 Annual Dividend: $3.20 per share
📆 Dividend Growth: Consistent with a 5-year average yield of 2.28%
🎯 Payout Ratio: 34.8% (plenty of room for future increases)
📅 Next Dividend Payment: March 14, 2025
🚨 Ex-Dividend Date: February 28, 2025

Dividend Overview

Evercore’s dividend yield of 1.55% might not be the highest out there, but it reflects a balanced approach—rewarding shareholders without limiting the company’s ability to grow. The payout ratio, sitting at 34.8%, is healthy, meaning the company is comfortably covering dividends with earnings while keeping enough cash for reinvestment.

Over the past five years, the average dividend yield has hovered around 2.28%. That’s a bit higher than today’s level, which suggests the stock price has appreciated faster than dividend increases. While that might make the yield look less attractive on paper, it’s actually a sign of strength—investors are willing to pay a premium for Evercore’s future earnings potential.

Dividend Growth and Safety

One of the most important things to consider with dividend stocks is whether the payouts are sustainable. Some companies stretch themselves too thin, paying out nearly all their profits in dividends. That’s not the case here.

Evercore’s 34.8% payout ratio leaves plenty of room for growth, even if earnings take a hit during economic downturns. Investment banks can be cyclical, but Evercore’s relatively conservative approach means there’s a cushion if deal-making slows down.

The company’s ability to generate strong cash flow also supports its dividend strategy. Over the last year, Evercore pulled in nearly $988 million in operating cash flow. That kind of liquidity makes it easier to sustain and potentially increase dividend payments in the future.

Chart Analysis

Price Trend

The chart for Evercore Inc. (EVR) tells a story of a stock that saw a strong uptrend for much of the past year before rolling over in recent months. From early last year through late fall, the stock climbed steadily, riding above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Momentum was clearly on its side during this period, as buyers stepped in to push the price higher.

However, things started shifting in the last few months. After reaching a peak above $300, the stock struggled to maintain its upward trajectory. A series of lower highs and lower lows developed, signaling a breakdown in the trend. More recently, the price has dropped below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a bearish signal that often points to further downside pressure.

Moving Averages

The 50-day moving average, which once provided support during the uptrend, is now sloping downward, reinforcing the shift in sentiment. As the stock continued to decline, it also fell beneath the 200-day moving average, a key long-term trend indicator. When a stock trades below both of these moving averages, it suggests that sellers are in control and that a potential shift in the market cycle is underway.

The distance between the price and the moving averages is worth noting. The stock has moved sharply away from these levels, indicating that it may be oversold in the short term. However, without a reversal pattern or signs of stabilization, it’s hard to determine if a meaningful bounce is near.

Volume Activity

Volume has picked up significantly during this decline, suggesting that there has been strong participation in the recent sell-off. Spikes in volume on down days can indicate panic selling or institutional investors exiting positions. The volume bars also show that recent trading activity has been much heavier than during the uptrend, reinforcing the idea that sentiment has shifted.

One particularly large volume spike can be seen in late November, likely tied to some major event or earnings reaction. Following that, volume remained relatively stable before increasing again as the downtrend accelerated. This type of volume pattern is often associated with distribution, where smart money gradually exits positions before the broader market catches on.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI at the bottom of the chart shows that the stock has been in a prolonged downtrend, with momentum heavily skewed to the downside. The RSI has been trending lower and now sits in deeply oversold territory. Generally, when RSI dips below 30, it suggests that the stock is oversold and could be due for a short-term bounce. However, oversold conditions alone aren’t enough to signal a reversal—stocks can remain oversold for extended periods in strong downtrends.

It’s also worth noting how RSI behaved during the uptrend. Back when the stock was climbing, RSI stayed elevated, often hovering near overbought levels. That kind of sustained strength is characteristic of strong bullish trends. The fact that it has now flipped so aggressively in the other direction is a clear sign that sentiment has completely reversed.

Recent Price Action

Looking at the last few candles, there are signs of increased volatility. The most recent trading sessions have featured long wicks on both sides, suggesting that there is some back-and-forth between buyers and sellers. The fact that the stock closed near its lows after attempting to push higher indicates that sellers still have control for now.

There is also a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, meaning that each attempt at a bounce is getting weaker. That kind of price action is typical in a downtrend and suggests that more downside could be ahead unless the stock finds a solid support level.

Analyst Ratings

📈 Upgrades:

🔹 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 🏦 upgraded Evercore from “Market Perform” to “Outperform” and raised the price target from $269 to $339. The upgrade was driven by Evercore’s strong financial results and a positive outlook for its advisory business, with expectations of continued deal flow in the coming quarters.

🔹 Goldman Sachs 📊 shifted its rating from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a price target of $276. Analysts pointed to Evercore’s robust pipeline of deals and efficient cost management as key factors supporting the upgrade, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities.

📉 Downgrades:

🔻 UBS ⚠️ downgraded Evercore from “Buy” to “Neutral,” adjusting the price target from $160 to $176. The downgrade was based on concerns that a potential slowdown in merger and acquisition activity could weigh on Evercore’s revenue, especially if corporate clients become more cautious.

🔻 Goldman Sachs 📉 previously downgraded Evercore from “Buy” to “Neutral” with a lower price target of $158 to $140. The downgrade was influenced by broader macroeconomic uncertainties and their potential impact on investment banking revenue. Analysts cited increased volatility in capital markets as a risk to Evercore’s near-term earnings.

🎯 Consensus Price Target:

The current 12-month price target for Evercore is approximately $298.60, reflecting a potential upside of 44.41% from the latest share price. This consensus suggests that while some analysts remain cautious about industry headwinds, others see strong upside potential in Evercore’s ability to navigate market fluctuations.

These mixed ratings highlight the uncertainties in the investment banking sector, where deal activity and economic conditions play a crucial role in shaping future growth.

Earning Report Summary

Evercore just wrapped up another strong quarter, closing out 2024 with solid financial results that reflect its steady momentum in the investment banking space. The firm managed to beat expectations on both revenue and earnings, showing resilience despite some uncertainty in the market.

For the fourth quarter, Evercore pulled in $975.33 million in revenue, coming in ahead of what analysts had predicted. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) also exceeded expectations, landing at $3.41 instead of the forecasted $3.04. A big driver of this performance was Evercore’s advisory business, which brought in $850 million in fees, thanks to a steady flow of mergers and acquisitions.

Looking at the full year, total revenue came in at $3 billion, marking an impressive 23 percent jump from the previous year. Financial advisory fees made up the bulk of this, hitting $2.45 billion, a clear sign that Evercore remains a go-to name for corporate deals and strategic consulting. The firm has continued to expand its reach, bringing on new talent and deepening relationships with clients across industries.

On the operations side, Evercore has been growing. The company ended the year with 2,380 employees, up from 2,195 the year before. They also reported 184 Senior Managing Directors, showing that leadership is focused on strengthening the firm’s advisory bench.

From a financial stability standpoint, Evercore’s balance sheet remains strong. The company closed the year with $873 million in cash, ensuring plenty of flexibility to navigate whatever comes next. It also continued to return value to shareholders, buying back 114,000 shares at an average price of $264.91 during the quarter.

Speaking of shareholder returns, Evercore announced a dividend increase, with the board declaring a $0.80 per share payout, set to be distributed on March 14, 2025. This move reinforces the firm’s commitment to rewarding investors while maintaining a solid financial position.

Looking ahead, Evercore’s leadership remains optimistic about 2025. While economic conditions are still in flux, the company has a strong backlog of deals and expects a steady flow of business in the months to come. With a solid track record and a growing market presence, Evercore continues to prove why it’s a key player in the financial advisory world.

Financial Health and Stability

Evercore has built a solid financial foundation, which is critical for dividend sustainability. Here’s what stands out:

• Profitability: A profit margin of 12.69% and an operating margin of 21.79% indicate solid financial performance.
• Return on Equity: At 22.43%, the company is putting shareholder capital to good use.
• Debt Load: Evercore carries $923 million in total debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 47.55%. While manageable, it’s something to keep an eye on, especially if interest rates stay high.
• Liquidity: A current ratio of 1.48 means the company has enough short-term assets to cover its liabilities.

All in all, Evercore is in good financial shape. While the debt load isn’t insignificant, the company has the earnings power to manage it.

Valuation and Stock Performance

For dividend investors, valuation matters just as much as yield. Buying at the right price can make a huge difference in long-term returns.

• Price-to-Earnings: The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 22.77 and a forward P/E of 15.55. The lower forward P/E suggests analysts expect earnings growth.
• Price-to-Book: At 4.74, Evercore trades at a premium to its book value, which is common for advisory firms.
• Stock Movement:
  • The stock closed at $206.74 on March 7, down 1.74% for the day.
  • It’s well above its 52-week low of $175.24 but significantly below the 52-week high of $324.06.
  • The 50-day moving average of $267.34 suggests recent weakness.

Evercore’s stock has seen some declines, which might present an opportunity for investors looking to enter at a lower price. However, given its cyclical nature, it’s wise to consider how economic conditions could impact its performance in the near term.

Risks and Considerations

Even with its solid dividend track record, Evercore isn’t without risks. Here are a few things to think about:

1. Market Cyclicality
   • Investment banking revenue depends on deal-making activity, which slows down during economic downturns. A prolonged dip in M&A activity could impact profitability.
2. Stock Price Volatility
   • With a beta of 1.42, Evercore’s stock is more volatile than the broader market. That means price swings could be more pronounced than in lower-beta dividend stocks.
3. Competitive Pressures
   • Evercore competes with firms like Lazard and Moelis & Co. for advisory business. A more aggressive push from rivals could put pressure on deal flow.
4. Debt Levels
   • While not alarmingly high, Evercore’s debt-to-equity ratio of 47.55% is worth watching, especially if borrowing costs rise.
5. Dividend Yield vs. Alternatives
   • A 1.55% yield is decent but not outstanding, especially when compared to higher-yielding dividend stocks or fixed-income options. Investors looking purely for income might find better choices elsewhere.

Final Thoughts

Evercore presents an interesting opportunity for dividend investors who want a balance of income and capital appreciation. The company has a strong track record of dividend payments, a conservative payout ratio, and enough financial flexibility to keep rewarding shareholders.

At the same time, this isn’t a slow-and-steady dividend stock like a consumer staples or utility company. Evercore operates in a cyclical industry, and that means earnings and stock price movements can be more volatile.

For investors comfortable with moderate risk, Evercore could be a solid addition to a diversified portfolio. The company has the financial strength to sustain its dividend and, depending on where the economy goes, there could be potential for both income and growth.