Updated 4/11/25
Based in Oklahoma, this regional bank has been operating for decades and has done so with an impressive level of financial discipline. It’s not trying to be the flashiest stock in your portfolio. What it offers instead is stability, prudent management, and a dividend that has steadily grown along with the business. For income-focused investors, that kind of quiet reliability is exactly what you want. With deep roots in its communities and a strong balance sheet, BancFirst continues to be a solid name for those looking at long-term income potential.
Recent Events
The past year has been good to BancFirst shareholders. The stock is up nearly 25% over the past 12 months, which easily outpaces broader market returns. What’s driving the outperformance? It mostly comes down to fundamentals.
BancFirst has posted consistent earnings growth. In the most recent quarter, earnings were up over 15% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share hit $6.44 over the trailing twelve months, while revenue reached $622 million, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from a year ago.
Margins are also strong. The operating margin sits around 49%, and return on equity is over 14%. This isn’t a bank taking big risks or overextending—it’s staying focused on quality underwriting, efficient operations, and shareholder value.
Insiders hold almost a third of the shares outstanding, and institutional ownership is just over 55%. That tells you there’s a strong alignment between management and investors. It also signals confidence in the business model from professional investors.
Another point that shouldn’t go unnoticed is how conservative the balance sheet is. With over $3.5 billion in cash and only $103 million in debt, the company has more than enough financial flexibility to weather economic cycles while continuing to reward shareholders.
Key Dividend Metrics
📅 Dividend Date: April 15, 2025
⛔ Ex-Dividend Date: March 31, 2025
💰 Forward Dividend Yield: 1.83%
📈 5-Year Average Yield: 1.97%
📊 Payout Ratio: 27.6%
💸 Trailing Annual Dividend Rate: $1.78
🧾 Forward Dividend Rate: $1.84
🪙 Last Stock Split: 2-for-1 on August 1, 2017
Dividend Overview
BancFirst isn’t trying to be a high-yield dividend stock. What it offers instead is a modest, reliable, and consistently growing dividend that’s backed by solid fundamentals. At the current share price, the dividend yield is about 1.83%, just a bit below the five-year average. That’s more a reflection of the stock’s strong price performance than anything negative about the dividend itself.
With a payout ratio under 28%, the dividend has plenty of breathing room. That low payout is a deliberate strategy—it lets the bank reinvest in growth while still returning capital to shareholders. It also gives them a nice buffer if economic conditions turn.
In short, this is a stock that doesn’t need to stretch to pay its dividend. And that’s exactly the kind of setup dividend investors should look for.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Dividend growth has been a steady part of BancFirst’s playbook. It’s not flashy, but it’s dependable. The company has built a pattern of consistent annual increases, and the most recent raise brought the dividend up to $1.84 per share.
There’s plenty of room to keep that trend going. Earnings are growing, the payout ratio is conservative, and the balance sheet is in excellent shape. With over $107 in cash per share and minimal debt, there’s no pressure on the company to scale back distributions—even in a tougher environment.
The safety of the dividend is further supported by BancFirst’s low beta of 0.83. That means the stock tends to be less volatile than the broader market. For income-focused investors, that lower volatility is a bonus. It provides a smoother ride and adds confidence that the dividend will keep coming, no matter what the market is doing.
In a world where a lot of dividend stocks come with trade-offs—whether it’s too much debt, high payout ratios, or economic sensitivity—BancFirst stands out for being quietly strong across the board. It may not grab headlines, but for investors who care about getting paid and sleeping well at night, it’s the kind of name that makes a lot of sense.
Cash Flow Statement
BancFirst’s trailing twelve-month cash flow paints a picture of strong operational health and conservative capital management. Operating cash flow for the period came in at $261.2 million, continuing a steady upward trend over the past few years. This consistent generation of cash from core banking activities has translated into $224.5 million in free cash flow, giving the company flexibility to support dividend growth and maintain liquidity without stretching its finances.
On the investing side, outflows were modest at $71.4 million, a significant improvement from the larger outflows in prior years, suggesting a slowdown in capital-intensive investments or acquisitions. Financing cash flow saw a dramatic shift, swinging positive at $966.5 million. This surge reflects a strategic move—likely tied to inflows from deposit growth or shifts in capital strategy rather than traditional debt issuance, which remained minimal. The bank’s cash position ended at a robust $3.55 billion, a substantial jump from the previous year’s $2.4 billion, giving BancFirst ample cushion to weather volatility and support future strategic moves.
Analyst Ratings
📉 BancFirst Corporation (BANF) recently received a downgrade from StockNews.com, shifting its rating from “hold” to “sell.” This change appears to stem from concerns about the bank’s earnings momentum and macroeconomic uncertainty, which may pressure margins going forward. The downgrade signals a more cautious stance from analysts who may be factoring in slower loan growth or potential compression in net interest margins.
🔄 Meanwhile, DA Davidson maintained a “neutral” rating on the stock and reaffirmed their price target at $120. While they remain optimistic about BancFirst’s strong loan demand and solid fee income, they made a slight downward revision to their earnings estimate for fiscal year 2025, trimming it from $6.47 to $6.44 per share. The adjustment reflects a more tempered view of earnings growth but not enough to shift their overall rating.
🎯 The average consensus price target among analysts now sits around $113.33, suggesting a small upside from the stock’s current level. The overall analyst sentiment is mixed, with a combination of “hold” and “sell” ratings dominating recent updates. These viewpoints reflect both confidence in the bank’s operational foundation and caution around future profitability trends.
Earnings Report Summary
Strong Finish to 2024
BancFirst wrapped up 2024 on a solid note, turning in another impressive quarter of growth. Net income came in at $56.5 million for the fourth quarter, which works out to $1.68 per share. That’s a nice step up from the $48.9 million, or $1.46 per share, the bank reported a year earlier. For the full year, profits reached $216.4 million, or $6.44 per share—again, a small but meaningful gain from the previous year.
The real driver behind those numbers was a continued lift in net interest income, which hit $115.9 million for the quarter. Loans continued to grow, and that helped maintain a stable net interest margin at 3.68%, just a hair above where it stood at the end of 2023. Noninterest income also moved in the right direction, rising to $47 million. Some of that came from increases in trust and treasury services, as well as insurance commissions.
Expense Growth and Balance Sheet Strength
On the expense side, there was a bump, mainly due to higher salaries and benefits. Noninterest expenses totaled $92.3 million for the quarter, up slightly from the same time last year. That’s not unusual given the broader rise in labor costs, and the increase was partly offset by a smaller write-down on other real estate owned.
Looking at the balance sheet, BancFirst ended the year with $13.6 billion in assets, up from $12.4 billion the year before. Loan balances climbed by $373 million to hit the $8 billion mark, and deposits also moved higher—up by $1 billion to $11.7 billion. A big chunk of that came from sweep accounts, which grew by more than $870 million.
There was a slight uptick in nonperforming loans, now sitting at 0.72% of total loans compared to 0.32% a year ago. Even with that increase, credit quality still looks solid, and the allowance for credit losses stayed unchanged at 1.24%.
Management’s Outlook
CEO David Harlow called it another record year for earnings per share and net income. He pointed to loan growth and overall asset quality as the main reasons for the strong results. He also struck a positive tone looking ahead to 2025, noting the strength of the regional economy and the bank’s positioning to keep building on this momentum.
Chart Analysis
Price Trend and Moving Averages
BANF has had a fairly eventful year on the chart. From April to around mid-November, the stock showed a strong uptrend, climbing steadily from the low $80s to a peak near $130. During that rise, the 50-day moving average stayed well above the 200-day moving average, which often signals positive momentum. But things shifted in early 2024. The price started pulling back, and by March, the stock had dipped below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
That cross below the longer-term average suggests some weakness in the trend. The 50-day is now sloping downward while the 200-day is flattening, showing that the shorter-term momentum has clearly lost steam. It’s not a breakdown yet, but the price closing under both moving averages does raise caution flags about near-term strength.
Volume Behavior
Volume has stayed mostly steady through the year, with a few notable spikes. The large green volume bar in early October lines up with a sharp price move, likely triggered by a news event or earnings. Since then, volume has mostly tapered off, and recent declines haven’t come with a significant rise in selling pressure. That could suggest a lack of urgency on the downside, but it also doesn’t show signs of fresh buying interest stepping in yet.
RSI Momentum
Looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index) in the lower panel, BANF has been drifting in and out of oversold territory over the past few months. Back in early February, it touched the 70 mark, but since then it’s trended lower, dipping into the 30 range multiple times. Most recently, the RSI is just above the oversold zone, hovering near 35, which may hint at some stabilization. Still, it hasn’t shown a clear reversal pattern that would suggest momentum is turning upward yet.
Overall, this chart tells the story of a stock that had a strong run through most of last year but has cooled off recently. It’s moved from a clear uptrend into a more uncertain, range-bound phase. The long-term trend is still intact above the 200-day moving average, but the recent weakness suggests it’s in a pause or pullback phase. Whether that turns into a deeper correction or a base-building phase depends on how the next few weeks unfold.
Management Team
BancFirst’s leadership is anchored by a team with deep roots in the company and the broader Oklahoma banking community. David Harlow serves as CEO and President, having stepped into the role in 2017 after leading the Oklahoma City market. His predecessor, David Rainbolt, transitioned to Executive Chairman and remains actively involved in strategic planning and acquisitions.
The executive bench includes Hannah Andrus, who was appointed Chief Financial Officer in early 2024. Andrus brings a background in public accounting and internal finance, following her tenure at Ernst & Young. Her appointment follows the departure of longtime CFO Kevin Lawrence.
The broader management team features a mix of long-serving executives and newer faces, reflecting a balance of institutional knowledge and fresh perspectives. This continuity at the top has helped the bank maintain a consistent strategic direction, focusing on steady growth and conservative financial management.
Valuation and Stock Performance
As of early April 2025, BANF shares are trading around $101, down from a 52-week high of $132 reached in late 2024. The stock has experienced some volatility, with a recent pullback bringing it closer to its 200-day moving average. Despite this, the stock remains up approximately 25% over the past year, outperforming many peers in the regional banking sector.
From a valuation standpoint, BANF trades at a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 16, with a forward P/E near 19. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.12, reflecting investor confidence in the bank’s asset quality and earnings consistency. While not a bargain by traditional metrics, the valuation appears reasonable given the company’s strong financial performance and dividend growth.
Analyst sentiment is mixed, with some maintaining neutral ratings and price targets around $120, while others have expressed concerns about potential earnings pressure in a changing interest rate environment. Overall, the stock’s performance reflects a balance of solid fundamentals and cautious optimism.
Risks and Considerations
While BancFirst has demonstrated resilience, several factors could impact its future performance. The interest rate environment remains a key variable, as changes could affect net interest margins and loan demand. Additionally, the bank’s concentration in Oklahoma and parts of Texas means its fortunes are closely tied to the regional economy.
Credit quality is another area to watch. Nonperforming loans have increased slightly, now representing 0.72% of total loans, up from 0.32% the previous year. While still manageable, any further deterioration could necessitate higher loan loss provisions, impacting earnings.
Operational risks, including cybersecurity threats and regulatory changes, also pose potential challenges. The bank’s ongoing investments in technology and compliance aim to mitigate these risks, but they remain areas of concern in the broader banking industry.
Final Thoughts
BancFirst continues to exhibit the hallmarks of a well-managed regional bank, with a strong leadership team, solid financial metrics, and a commitment to shareholder returns. While the stock has faced some recent headwinds, its long-term performance and strategic positioning suggest it remains a noteworthy player in the regional banking landscape.