Nomura Upgrades Vipshop to Buy with $22 Price Target
On February 27, 2026, analysts at Nomura upgraded Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS), a leading online discount retailer for brands in China, from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy.” The firm set a price target of $22.00 for the stock. The upgrade came just one day after Vipshop reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, signaling that Nomura sees meaningful upside in the stock despite a mixed earnings picture.
Why the Rating Changed
Nomura’s upgrade appears closely tied to several developments surrounding Vipshop’s latest financial disclosures and forward guidance:
- Q4 2025 Earnings Results: Vipshop reported mixed fourth quarter 2025 results, missing revenue estimates but slightly beating on earnings per share. While the revenue miss could be seen as a negative signal, the EPS beat suggests the company is managing costs effectively and maintaining profitability even in a challenging consumer environment in China.
- Full-Year 2025 Performance and Shareholder Returns: For the full year 2025, Vipshop reported slightly lower annual revenue and net income compared to the prior year. However, the company simultaneously declared a significant annual cash dividend of US$3.10 per ordinary share (US$0.62 per ADS), payable on April 24, 2026. This substantial return of capital to shareholders likely factored into Nomura’s more constructive outlook, as it demonstrates management’s confidence in the company’s cash flow generation and its commitment to rewarding investors.
- Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance: Vipshop issued first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance of $3.761 billion to $3.947 billion. The issuance of forward guidance, alongside the dividend declaration, may have given Nomura analysts additional visibility into the company’s near-term trajectory and reinforced their conviction that the stock is undervalued at current levels.
- Valuation Opportunity: With shares dipping slightly in pre-market trading following the mixed Q4 results, the combination of a beaten-down share price, strong shareholder returns, and reasonable forward guidance likely presented what Nomura viewed as an attractive entry point, supporting the move from Neutral to Buy with a $22 target.
Dividend Snapshot
Vipshop currently pays an annual dividend of $0.62 per ADS, which represents a dividend yield of approximately 3.42% at recent prices. The most recent ex-dividend date was April 9, 2026, with payment scheduled for April 24, 2026. The declared annual cash dividend of US$3.10 per ordinary share (equivalent to US$0.62 per ADS) underscores the company’s solid cash position and its willingness to distribute meaningful capital back to shareholders.
For dividend-focused investors, Vipshop’s yield stands out among Chinese e-commerce and retail names, many of which have historically prioritized reinvestment over direct shareholder payouts. The dividend adds a tangible return component on top of any potential share price appreciation toward Nomura’s $22 target.
Looking Ahead
Nomura’s upgrade positions Vipshop as a name to watch in the Chinese consumer and e-commerce space. The combination of cost discipline, a generous dividend policy, and forward revenue guidance in the $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion range for Q1 2026 suggests the company is navigating a period of slower top-line growth while still delivering value to shareholders. Investors will likely be monitoring whether Vipshop can return to revenue growth in the coming quarters and sustain its current level of profitability and shareholder distributions.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Analyst ratings and price targets reflect the opinions of the issuing firms and are subject to change. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.