Goldman Sachs has shifted its stance on $MAR, moving the rating from “Buy” to “Neutral” with a revised price target of $245. This marks a pivotal reassessment of Marriott’s growth outlook amid rising macroeconomic pressures.
🔻 Earnings Outlook Misses the Mark
Marriott’s 2025 profit forecast landed below Wall Street expectations, with projected adjusted earnings per share ranging between $9.82 and $10.19. Analysts had anticipated $10.65, and the gap has raised concerns about the company’s ability to sustain profit momentum—especially in the face of sluggish travel demand in China, where economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer spending.
📉 Slowing Expansion
Marriott’s net room growth is expected to cool down to 4% to 5% in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2024. That slowdown is prompting investors to reevaluate the scalability of the company’s global expansion strategy in the current economic climate.
🌏 Asia-Pacific a Mixed Bag
While Greater China saw a 1.7% decline in room revenue, other parts of Asia-Pacific posted a 12.5% increase. This regional disparity underscores the uneven nature of the global recovery in travel and hospitality—and points to China as a clear weak spot.
💰 Dividend Snapshot
• Annual Dividend: $2.52 per share
• Dividend Yield: ~1.12%
• Payout Ratio: Around 30%, reflecting a balanced capital return strategy
Marriott still provides a stable income stream through its dividend, but the outlook for capital appreciation has dimmed given the regional setbacks and softer growth. For income-focused investors, $MAR may still hold value, but growth-driven strategies might be better served elsewhere—at least for now.