KeyBanc Upgrades Macerich (MAC) to Overweight with $25 Price Target
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Craig Mailman has upgraded Macerich Co (NYSE: MAC) from Sector Weight to Overweight, establishing a new price target of $25. With Macerich shares closing at $20.30 prior to the upgrade, the new target implies approximately 23% upside from recent levels. The upgrade centers on the company’s execution of its “Path Forward” strategic plan and expectations for improving fundamentals heading into 2026 and beyond.
Why the Rating Changed
KeyBanc’s upgrade is rooted in several specific catalysts tied to Macerich’s ongoing turnaround strategy. According to coverage of the analyst’s rationale, the firm expects improving net operating income (NOI) in 2026 to drive multiple expansion for the stock. The analyst highlighted that a combination of factors — EBITDA growth, strategic loan givebacks, and potential accretive acquisitions — should support above-average net asset value (NAV) growth as the company’s Path Forward Plan progresses.
The Path Forward Plan has been Macerich’s roadmap for repositioning its portfolio of regional shopping centers across the United States. The plan has involved shedding underperforming assets, reducing leverage, and focusing capital on higher-quality properties with stronger growth profiles. KeyBanc appears to view the company as reaching an inflection point where these efforts begin translating into measurable financial improvement.
It is worth noting that not all analysts share the same timeline for the upside. Compass Point recently raised its own price target on Macerich to $22 but cautioned that meaningful upside could be delayed until mid-2027, suggesting shares may remain relatively flat through most of 2026 before gaining strength in the latter half of the year.
Adding another layer to the story, Macerich has recently drawn attention from traders due to its elevated short interest. Some market participants have flagged the stock as a potential short squeeze candidate. The key question for investors is whether this is simply speculative momentum or evidence of a genuine fundamentals-driven rerating. KeyBanc’s upgrade lends credibility to the latter interpretation, grounding the bull case in operational improvement rather than purely technical dynamics.
- EBITDA Growth: KeyBanc expects meaningful earnings growth as the Path Forward Plan gains traction.
- Loan Givebacks: Strategic moves to hand back underperforming assets tied to non-recourse debt should improve portfolio quality and reduce drag on financials.
- Accretive Acquisitions: The potential for value-adding acquisitions could further boost NAV growth.
- Multiple Expansion: Improving NOI trends in 2026 are expected to drive a re-rating of the stock’s valuation multiple.
Macerich’s Dividend Profile
Macerich currently pays an annual dividend of $0.68 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of approximately 3.35% based on recent prices. The most recent ex-dividend date was March 15, 2026.
For a mall REIT that has undergone significant restructuring in recent years, the current dividend reflects a more conservative payout compared to the company’s pre-pandemic levels. If KeyBanc’s thesis plays out and EBITDA growth materializes as expected, there could be room for dividend growth over time, though investors should monitor the company’s cash flow trajectory and leverage reduction progress before banking on increases. As a REIT, Macerich is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, making the dividend an important component of total return for income-focused investors.
Outlook
KeyBanc’s upgrade positions Macerich as a turnaround story entering a phase of execution-driven value creation. The $25 price target suggests meaningful upside if the company delivers on its Path Forward objectives. However, the Compass Point commentary serves as a reminder that the timeline for realizing this value may extend into 2027. Investors considering a position should weigh the improving fundamental picture against the possibility of a prolonged period before the market fully recognizes the turnaround.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.