BofA Securities Downgrades Fox Corporation on NFL Rights Renewal Risk
BofA Securities has issued a notable double downgrade of Fox Corporation (NASDAQ: FOXA), moving the stock from Buy all the way down to Underperform — the firm’s equivalent of a Sell rating. Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich set a new price target of $45, signaling significant downside risk from current levels. The move makes BofA the lone bear on Fox among major Wall Street firms, and the reasoning centers on a specific and potentially costly risk: the upcoming renewal of the company’s National Football League broadcasting rights.
Why the Rating Changed
The core of BofA’s downgrade revolves around the NFL’s increasingly dominant position in the U.S. media landscape and what that means for Fox when its current rights deal comes up for renewal. According to coverage of the analyst note, BofA views Fox as the most exposed name to the upcoming NFL media rights negotiations.
Several key factors drove the downgrade:
- NFL’s growing leverage: The NFL’s grip on U.S. audiences continues to strengthen, with the league commanding ever-larger audiences and commanding premium pricing power. BofA warns that this expanding influence could “spell trouble” for Fox when it returns to the negotiating table, as the league will likely demand significantly higher fees for broadcast rights.
- Disproportionate exposure: Among media companies that carry NFL content, BofA sees Fox as facing the steepest risks in the looming negotiations. Fox’s programming strategy is heavily reliant on NFL broadcasts, particularly its flagship Sunday NFC package, making a renewal at substantially higher cost a material financial concern.
- Cost-versus-return dynamics: While NFL rights are essential for maintaining Fox’s audience and advertising revenue, the escalating cost of those rights threatens to compress margins. A significant increase in rights fees could erode profitability even if the content continues to draw large viewerships.
It is worth noting that not all analysts share BofA’s bearish outlook. Some more optimistic voices have pointed to Fox’s sports rights portfolio and its growing ties to the sports betting ecosystem as positive catalysts. Additionally, independent valuation analysis from SimplyWall.St has kept Fox’s modeled Fair Value estimate steady at $74.94, well above BofA’s $45 price target, suggesting that views on the stock’s risk-reward profile remain sharply divided.
In other recent developments, Fox Corporation announced in February 2026 that its Red Seat Ventures division acquired Supercast, a move that signals the company’s continued efforts to diversify its revenue streams and expand into new content distribution and monetization models.
Fox Corporation’s Dividend Profile
Fox Corporation currently pays an annual dividend of $0.56 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of approximately 1.0% at current prices. The most recent ex-dividend date was March 3, 2026.
For income-focused investors, Fox’s yield is relatively modest and falls below the average for the broader market. The stock is not typically considered a high-yield dividend play, and if BofA’s concerns about rising NFL rights costs materialize, future dividend growth could face pressure as higher programming expenses weigh on free cash flow. That said, Fox’s dividend payout remains manageable at current levels, and there is no immediate indication of a cut.
What This Means for Investors
BofA’s downgrade highlights a risk that is specific and measurable — the financial impact of NFL rights renewal — rather than a broad deterioration in Fox’s business. Investors should weigh this against the company’s strong position in live sports broadcasting, its diversification efforts, and the significantly higher fair value estimates from other analysts. The wide gap between BofA’s $45 price target and independent fair value estimates near $75 underscores the uncertainty surrounding this issue and the degree to which the outcome of NFL negotiations could swing the stock in either direction.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Analyst ratings and price targets represent the opinions of the issuing firms and are subject to change. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.