Updated 3/13/25
Restaurant Brands International, better known by its ticker QSR, is the powerhouse behind some of the most recognizable names in fast food. If you’ve ever had a Whopper from Burger King, a coffee from Tim Hortons, or spicy chicken from Popeyes, you’ve contributed to the company’s global footprint. Formed back in 2014 through the merger of Burger King and Tim Hortons, QSR has grown into a global restaurant giant. It now operates on a heavily franchised model that brings in steady, high-margin revenue—music to the ears of dividend-focused investors.
Now let’s unpack what matters most to income investors looking at QSR today.
Recent Events
The company’s been making moves lately, most notably its “Reclaim the Flame” effort to give Burger King a much-needed refresh. The idea is to boost the brand’s relevance and customer traffic, particularly in the U.S. Results are trickling in, but it’s still early days. That said, the company saw a 26% jump in revenue during the latest quarter, a solid number that reflects some momentum.
But there’s a twist. Despite the strong top-line growth, earnings per share took a nosedive—down nearly 50% year over year. That tells us the company is spending heavily, likely on brand updates, digital investments, and international expansion. It’s a mixed bag. While top-line growth is encouraging, profitability is under pressure in the near term.
Internationally, Popeyes is gaining traction, especially in Asian markets. Meanwhile, Tim Hortons continues to be a steady performer in Canada. All in all, QSR is expanding, reinvesting, and modernizing—but that’s not coming cheap.
Key Dividend Metrics
💰 Forward Yield: 3.70%
📈 Five-Year Average Yield: 3.44%
🗓️ Next Dividend Pay Date: April 4, 2025
📌 Ex-Dividend Date: March 21, 2025
💸 Annual Dividend: $2.48 per share
⚖️ Payout Ratio: 73%
📊 Dividend Growth: Modest but consistent
Dividend Overview
At a glance, the dividend yield of 3.7% is attractive. It edges above the stock’s five-year average and comfortably beats the broader market’s average yield. For anyone building a portfolio with income in mind, this makes QSR a stock worth noting.
Currently, the company pays $2.48 per share annually. The payout ratio hovers around 73%, which is a bit on the high side. That level tells you the dividend isn’t risky, but it’s not loaded with runway for big increases either. With earnings compressed and expenses climbing, the margin for dividend growth may stay tight for a bit.
But the real value here is predictability. QSR’s business model relies heavily on franchising. That means less overhead, fewer fixed costs, and more steady revenue flowing in—even when economic conditions wobble.
Dividend Growth and Safety
QSR has been a slow but steady grower when it comes to dividends. The increases are usually modest—nothing flashy—but they’ve shown consistency over the years. Management clearly views the dividend as a priority, and there’s been no sign of cuts even during challenging quarters.
The dividend is well-supported by cash flow. Over the last year, the company brought in $1.5 billion in operating cash flow and posted nearly $1.47 billion in free cash flow after expenses. That’s enough cushion to keep the dividend going, even if earnings remain under pressure.
Still, with a payout ratio near 73%, the dividend’s safety is more reliant on strong cash generation than big profit jumps. And that’s a fair trade-off for a franchised business like this one. It doesn’t need massive capital spending to grow.
Chart Analysis
Price Action and Moving Averages
The chart for QSR shows a stock that’s been under pressure for most of the past year, consistently trending lower beneath both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average has acted as resistance for much of the time, with the stock struggling to hold above it for any meaningful period. It wasn’t until late February that price pushed convincingly above the 50-day line, only to meet the 200-day average almost immediately after.
That 200-day average continues to slope downward, a sign that long-term momentum remains bearish. The stock recently bounced off that 200-day resistance near $69, and has since pulled back to the $66 range. It’s now sitting just above the 50-day average again, which will be important to watch as potential short-term support.
Volume Behavior
Volume tells a subtle but revealing story here. While the average daily volume has remained relatively stable, spikes in green volume bars—especially in mid-February—suggest buyers have shown up on rallies. That said, the most recent attempt to break out above $69 wasn’t confirmed with heavy volume. This makes the move look more like a short-term test rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.
During the downtrend from October through January, red volume bars dominated, which reinforced the weakness in price. That behavior shifted slightly as February began, with more green bars appearing during rally attempts. Still, it hasn’t been enough to shift the overall balance of power in favor of the bulls.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is currently pulling back from overbought territory, where it hovered above 70 in early March. That level tends to trigger some profit-taking, and the dip in price that followed is in line with what you’d expect. Right now, RSI is cooling off but still well above the oversold threshold.
The broader RSI trend throughout the chart reflects the stock’s bearish undertone. For most of the past year, RSI stayed in the lower half of its range, often failing to climb above 60. Only recently has it surged higher, which indicates growing momentum—but one that’s now taking a breather.
Recent Candle Action
Looking at the last five candles, a few things stand out. There’s a clear rejection near $68.50, as seen from the long upper wicks on the recent highs, suggesting sellers stepped in at that level. The most recent candle closed near the bottom of its daily range, right around $66, which shows weakness into the close.
There’s also evidence of narrowing daily ranges in the last few sessions. That kind of compression usually points to an upcoming move, but direction isn’t clear yet. The price is hovering just above the 50-day moving average, which could serve as the next battleground between buyers and sellers.
Selling pressure appears to be slightly outweighing buying interest at this stage, particularly after the rejection at the 200-day moving average.
Analyst Ratings
📈 Restaurant Brands International (QSR) recently received an upgrade from Argus, moving the stock from a hold to a strong-buy. This shift signals growing confidence in the company’s direction, particularly following its recent efforts to rejuvenate the Burger King brand and boost digital engagement across its portfolio. The upgrade also suggests optimism about QSR’s international expansion, especially with Popeyes gaining ground in newer markets.
📉 On the other side, TD Cowen downgraded the stock from a strong-buy to a hold back in February. The change reflects a more cautious tone, likely driven by the company’s mixed earnings performance and pressures on profit margins. The downgrade may also stem from concerns around the high debt load and uncertain near-term earnings growth, especially as operating costs remain elevated.
💵 As of the latest data, the stock is trading around $66.91. Analyst sentiment, though mixed, leans slightly positive. The consensus price target sits at $77.23, indicating a potential upside from current levels. Targets from individual analysts range broadly, from a low of $67.00 to a high of $93.00, showcasing a wide range of expectations for QSR’s trajectory over the next 12 months.
🔍 The stock continues to attract attention from both bullish and cautious voices, with recent ratings reflecting the push and pull between long-term potential and near-term challenges.
Earnings Report Summary
Restaurant Brands International wrapped up 2024 with a mixed set of numbers—some things to be excited about, and a few areas that clearly need work. If you follow the parent company of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, you know they’ve been focused on shaking things up across the board, and that showed up in their latest earnings.
Starting with the top line, total revenue came in strong. They pulled in $2.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up from $1.8 billion a year ago. For the full year, revenue climbed to $8.4 billion, a noticeable bump from $7 billion in 2023. A lot of that came from higher system-wide sales and better supply chain revenue from franchisees.
Sales across their major brands saw modest growth. Global system-wide sales rose just over 5% for both the quarter and the year, while comparable sales ticked up 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Tim Hortons in Canada and the international segment were two of the brighter spots, each showing consistent demand.
Operating income showed healthy gains, rising to $635 million in the quarter and hitting $2.4 billion for the year. That’s a nice jump compared to 2023. Adjusted operating income also pushed higher, pointing to underlying strength, even as the company reinvests heavily into the business.
The bottom line, though, was a bit less upbeat. Net income for the fourth quarter was $361 million, which is a big drop from $726 million the year before. Annual net income also slipped to $1.4 billion, down from $1.7 billion. Some of that decline came from strategic investments and rising costs, which management seems to view as necessary for future growth.
Earnings per share told a similar story. Diluted EPS was down to $0.79 for the quarter and $3.18 for the year, both lower than 2023. However, when you strip out some of the noise, adjusted EPS actually improved a bit—coming in at $0.81 for the quarter and $3.34 for the full year.
Looking ahead, the company seems focused on long-term improvement. Leadership pointed to stronger marketing, better restaurant operations, and an improved guest experience as top priorities. They also reaffirmed their commitment to dividends, targeting $2.48 per share in 2025. In 2024, they returned around $1 billion to shareholders, which reinforces their ongoing focus on delivering value while still pushing growth initiatives forward.
Financial Health and Stability
Now for the part income investors can’t ignore—QSR is sitting on a pretty heavy pile of debt. Total debt stands at nearly $16 billion. That’s a big number, and it’s more than 10 times the company’s cash reserves. The debt-to-equity ratio is sky-high, well over 300%, which is worth paying attention to.
Despite that, the company generates healthy returns. Return on equity is strong at over 30%, and operating margins remain impressive at around 24%. Those numbers paint the picture of a company that knows how to squeeze profit from its operating model—even if the balance sheet is a bit top-heavy.
The current ratio, a measure of short-term liquidity, is just under 1. That’s a little tight but manageable. It suggests the company is running lean rather than being in financial trouble.
Valuation and Stock Performance
QSR is currently trading around $67, well off its 52-week high near $80. That might not be great for recent buyers, but for long-term investors looking to lock in income, it opens up a more attractive yield window.
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is just over 21, but on a forward basis, it drops to about 12.5. That’s a sign the market is expecting earnings to bounce back, or at the very least, hold steady in the near future.
The stock has lagged the broader market, down nearly 15% over the past year while the S&P 500 moved higher. Whether that’s a red flag or an opportunity depends on your perspective. From an income standpoint, the higher yield that comes with a lower share price is a silver lining.
Valuation metrics like price-to-sales and price-to-book are a bit rich, with the latter over 7. That’s not unusual for a capital-light, high-margin business, but it does mean you’re paying a premium for consistency.
Risks and Considerations
There are a few things dividend investors should keep in mind here:
First, the debt load is significant. In a rising interest rate environment, servicing that debt could start to eat into margins. The good news is the company generates plenty of cash. The not-so-good news is that any hiccup in earnings could tighten things fast.
Second, earnings volatility like we saw last quarter isn’t ideal. When revenue rises but profits fall, that’s a sign of cost pressures or inefficiencies. The company needs to show that its investments in brand refreshes and digital platforms will pay off.
Third, competition in fast food is brutal. While Popeyes and Tim Hortons are performing well, Burger King still has work to do to reclaim lost ground in the U.S. The brand is being modernized, but that takes time and money.
And lastly, the global nature of QSR is both a strength and a risk. While international expansion helps diversify revenue, it also exposes the company to foreign currency swings and regional economic issues.
Final Thoughts
Restaurant Brands International is not the kind of stock that makes headlines, but it does make deposits—for dividend investors, at least. The 3.7% yield is attractive, the payout is reliable, and the franchised model keeps things relatively predictable.
There are some financial quirks to be aware of, particularly the heavy debt load and the occasional earnings dip. But the company’s global footprint, consistent cash flow, and brand strength provide a solid backdrop for income investors.
In a world where many stocks offer promise but little income, QSR remains one of the few that lets you collect a steady paycheck while you wait.