Updated 3/13/25
Republic Services isn’t flashy. It’s not a headline-maker or a social media darling. But what it lacks in hype, it makes up for in predictability, consistency, and quiet strength. This $73 billion waste management company has carved out a dependable role in dividend investors’ portfolios by doing the basics well—and doing them with discipline.
With operations spanning residential, commercial, and municipal waste and recycling, RSG delivers steady cash flows built on long-term contracts. That’s the kind of business structure dividend investors love. It’s not exciting—but it’s dependable. And in dividend investing, that counts for a lot.
Recent Events
Republic just closed out 2024 with another solid performance. Revenue climbed to $16.03 billion, up 5.6% from a year earlier, and net income came in at $2.04 billion. Even more impressive? Earnings per share rose 16.5%. That’s not the kind of growth you usually see in a utility-like business.
The company is clearly navigating higher labor and fuel costs better than most. Operating margins remain comfortably above 20%, showing they’ve been able to pass along costs to customers without hurting volumes. This kind of pricing power isn’t common—and it’s exactly what gives investors confidence in the long-term story.
Key Dividend Metrics
📅 Dividend Yield: 0.98% (Forward)
💵 Annual Dividend: $2.32 per share
📈 5-Year Dividend Growth: ~6%
🧮 Payout Ratio: 34.36%
📆 Ex-Dividend Date: April 2, 2025
💰 Payment Date: April 15, 2025
🪙 5-Year Average Yield: 1.41%
Dividend Overview
Republic’s dividend yield isn’t high—it’s just shy of 1%—but that’s not the full picture. What matters more is that it’s reliable, well-covered, and growing. The company pays out about a third of its earnings, leaving plenty of flexibility to reinvest in operations, reduce debt, or buy back shares.
Investors get peace of mind knowing the dividend isn’t just a token gesture. It’s a core part of how RSG rewards shareholders. You can see that in the way the payout has grown year after year without interruption, even during tougher economic periods.
Dividend Growth and Safety
This is where Republic quietly shines. Its dividend has been increasing steadily, not in dramatic leaps, but in consistent, manageable steps. The average annual hike over the past five years sits around 6%, which comfortably outpaces inflation and reflects the health of the underlying business.
The payout ratio—sitting just above 34%—offers a wide margin of safety. It tells you the company isn’t stretching to meet its dividend obligations. Instead, the dividend is comfortably supported by operating cash flows, which totaled nearly $4 billion last year. With that kind of cash generation, the company could raise the dividend considerably and still stay on firm footing. But it’s not in a rush. That kind of measured approach is exactly what long-term investors appreciate.
Chart Analysis
Market Phase
The chart for Republic Services () is clearly in the markup phase of the Wyckoff market cycle. This is a textbook uptrend that’s been in place for nearly a year. After a relatively flat stretch in early 2024, the stock broke above a key resistance area in late June and began climbing steadily, confirming the transition out of any prior accumulation. The slope of the 50-day moving average turned upward sharply in July, and since then, it’s remained above the 200-day moving average—classic confirmation of strength.
Volume spikes around mid-July and October show strong institutional interest, likely during breakout and continuation points. Notably, there’s been no volume blow-off at the top, which tells us the current trend may still have room before exhaustion sets in.
Moving Averages
The 50-day simple moving average has acted as dynamic support since mid-year. Price repeatedly tested and bounced off this line, indicating healthy trend behavior. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average has been rising at a steady, gradual pace, reflecting long-term confidence in the stock.
What’s important here is the increasing distance between the two moving averages since November. That widening gap is a sign of momentum building. We’re seeing higher highs and higher lows forming consistently.
Volume Behavior
Volume has cooled off in recent weeks as the stock pulled back slightly from its February highs, but there’s no panic selling. Volume is declining as price consolidates—a normal and healthy pause in an uptrend. There haven’t been any distribution-like spikes that would suggest a large exit from major holders. That’s significant.
Back in July and again in late October, volume surged alongside strong green candles, supporting the legitimacy of those price breakouts. Since then, volume has become more balanced, leaning slightly positive, but the absence of aggressive selling pressure keeps the bull case intact.
RSI Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stayed in bullish territory for most of the last several months. It crossed over the 70 level a few times, especially during the January–February rally, which hinted at overbought conditions. However, the recent retreat in RSI to the low 60s is a cooling-off, not a reversal signal.
The current RSI reading suggests the stock is working off its previous rally without breaking the trend. There’s no bearish divergence, and the RSI remains well above the midline, maintaining positive momentum.
Latest Five Candles
Looking at the last five candles, the tone has shifted slightly. Price action shows small-bodied candles with upper wicks, signaling sellers are beginning to step in at higher levels. There’s a slight loss of momentum, but not enough to call it a trend break.
The most recent candle closed lower than it opened, showing hesitation from buyers. However, it’s still within a comfortable range of support, and volume is light. That often suggests this is more of a digestion phase rather than a selloff brewing.
Summary of Current Structure
We’re looking at a chart in the later stages of the markup phase. It’s not overheating, but it’s also not in accumulation anymore. The stock has been rewarded for strong fundamentals, and the technical structure is backing that up. The pullback over the past few weeks is healthy consolidation within an uptrend, not a signal of trend reversal—at least not yet.
Analyst Ratings
📈 Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) has seen several positive shifts in analyst sentiment lately, with a wave of upgrades and price target bumps rolling in over the first quarter of 2025.
🟢 In early January, RBC Capital Markets lifted its rating on RSG from “Sector Perform” to “Outperform” and nudged the price target up from $219 to $237. The firm pointed to continued earnings momentum and improved operational efficiency as key reasons behind the move.
📊 Deutsche Bank followed suit shortly after, upgrading RSG from “Hold” to “Buy” and matching the $237 target. Analysts there highlighted the company’s pricing power and the tailwind from stable volume trends in both commercial and residential segments.
🔼 February brought more optimism. UBS upped its target from $212 to $240 while maintaining a “Neutral” stance. Stifel took a more bullish view, raising its target from $240 to $257 and reiterating its “Buy” rating. Their focus was on Republic’s steady margin improvement and stronger-than-expected cash flow.
🚛 Argus Research added to the bullish tone by increasing its target from $230 to $260, citing Republic’s dominant position in U.S. waste services and solid dividend growth history.
📊 CIBC capped off the analyst activity in early March with an upgrade from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and a fresh target of $264. Analysts pointed to the company’s long-term tailwinds, including infrastructure spending and potential M&A opportunities.
📌 As of mid-March 2025, the overall consensus among 18 Wall Street analysts stands at a “Moderate Buy” for Republic Services. The average price target across the board is $244.24. Targets range from a low of $229 to a high of $265, implying about 4.7% upside from the current trading range around $233.
These revisions show growing confidence in Republic’s ability to execute consistently in a defensive sector, while also rewarding shareholders through dividends and steady price appreciation.
Earnings Report Summary
Republic Services ended 2024 with solid momentum and some numbers that show the business is running smoothly. The company delivered strong profit growth, stayed efficient across its operations, and continued investing in long-term initiatives—all while keeping up steady cash flow.
In the fourth quarter, net income came in at $512 million, or $1.63 per share. That’s up from $440 million and $1.39 per share this time last year. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $1.58, which is a nice 12 percent bump. It’s a sign that margins are holding up and cost management is working, even as inflation pressures continue in parts of the business.
Total revenue for the quarter was also up by 5.6 percent. Most of that growth came from the company’s pricing strategy, which added over six percent to the top line. A little more than one percent came from acquisitions, helping expand the company’s reach. Organic growth looked healthy too, reflecting steady demand for waste and recycling services.
Margins were another bright spot. Republic posted an operating margin just under 13 percent for the quarter. EBITDA hit $1.25 billion, making up 31 percent of revenue. That’s a full percentage point better than where they stood a year ago, which speaks to how well they’re managing expenses.
The recycling business also chipped in. Commodity prices averaged $153 per ton, up nicely from the previous year. It’s not the biggest part of the business, but it’s still good to see that segment contributing to the broader strength.
For the full year, net income totaled $2.04 billion, or $6.49 per share. That’s up more than 18 percent year over year. Adjusted EPS was just a touch lower at $6.46, and full-year EBITDA came in at $4.98 billion, again representing 31 percent of revenue. Free cash flow grew by 10 percent to hit $2.18 billion, which helped fund about a billion dollars’ worth of acquisitions.
On the sustainability front, they brought two renewable natural gas projects online in the fourth quarter. It’s part of a broader push into long-term environmental solutions, which seems to be moving along steadily.
All in all, Republic ended the year in a strong position—growing earnings, managing costs, and putting cash to work without taking on unnecessary risk.
Financial Health and Stability
Waste management is a capital-heavy business. Trucks, transfer stations, recycling infrastructure—it all adds up. RSG carries about $13 billion in total debt, which results in a debt-to-equity ratio above 113%. That sounds high, and it is, but it’s not out of the ordinary for the sector.
The key is that Republic has the earnings power and cash flow to handle that debt. Return on equity is strong at 18.6%, and return on assets is over 6%. These figures show the company is putting its capital to work efficiently, even in a slow-growth industry.
Liquidity is a bit tight with a current ratio of 0.58, but that’s typical for a business with recurring cash inflows. Republic doesn’t need to hoard cash. Its model is based on stable, predictable billing cycles and long-term contracts—just the kind of setup that gives investors confidence in its ability to keep paying and raising that dividend.
Valuation and Stock Performance
On paper, RSG isn’t cheap. The stock trades at over 36 times trailing earnings and about 34 times forward earnings. The PEG ratio, at 3.7, reflects a high valuation relative to expected growth. But here’s the thing—investors are willing to pay a premium for quality.
This stock isn’t about explosive gains. It’s about stability. It’s about steady growth and reliable income. That’s exactly why it outperformed the broader market last year, gaining more than 24% compared to the S&P 500’s 10.8%. The company’s beta is just 0.74, so the stock tends to hold up better during downturns and doesn’t swing wildly with market sentiment.
That kind of price performance, combined with modest but consistent dividend growth, makes RSG an attractive long-term hold for those looking to build income over time—not chase it.
Risks and Considerations
There are a few things to keep in mind. First, the yield is low. If you’re an investor looking for 3%, 4%, or higher from dividends, Republic won’t get you there. This is more of a slow-builder than a cash-generator.
Second, the company’s debt load is something to monitor. While manageable for now, if interest rates stay elevated for years, it could begin to limit flexibility.
Third, the valuation assumes continued smooth execution. If the company stumbles—even slightly—on earnings or growth, the stock could face some pressure simply due to how highly it’s priced.
And then there are regulatory risks. Waste management is heavily regulated. Changes to environmental policy or recycling standards could add unexpected costs, even for a company as efficient as Republic.
Final Thoughts
Republic Services isn’t the kind of stock you brag about at parties. It doesn’t make headlines or light up your portfolio with sudden surges. But for dividend investors, that’s part of the appeal. This is a company that delivers—quarter after quarter, year after year.
It’s run with discipline. It generates steady cash flow. It pays a growing dividend that doesn’t keep you up at night. For investors looking to add something sturdy to their income strategy, RSG is about as reliable as they come.
It may not excite, but it does reassure—and in this market, that’s worth its weight in gold.