Key Takeaways
📈 Duke’s forward dividend yield sits at 3.43%, with steady annual increases over the past 19 years and a payout ratio just above 72%.
💵 Operating cash flow reached $12.3 billion in the trailing twelve months, while free cash flow turned positive for the first time in three years.
🧐 Analysts have maintained largely positive ratings, with a consensus price target around $123.87 and recent target increases reflecting confidence in the company’s outlook.
📊 Fourth-quarter EPS came in at $1.66, boosting full-year adjusted earnings to $5.90 and guiding toward continued growth in 2025.
Last Update: 5/1/25
Duke Energy (DUK) serves over 8 million customers across the Southeast and Midwest, with a strong base in regulated electric and gas utilities. The company is transitioning leadership to Harry Sideris while staying focused on reliability, clean energy investments, and steady shareholder returns.
In 2024, Duke reported $5.90 in adjusted earnings per share and guided toward $6.17 to $6.42 for 2025. Shares have climbed nearly 30% over the past year, supported by consistent earnings, dividend strength, and positive technical momentum.
Recent Events
Over the last year, Duke has quietly added some solid gains. Shares have climbed nearly 23% off their 52-week low, a notable move for a utility stock. Much of that upside has come as investors rotate back into rate-sensitive sectors and seek stable cash flow plays while the macro outlook remains hazy.
Fourth-quarter earnings brought a few surprises. Revenue ticked up 2.7% year-over-year, and earnings growth was nearly 20% for the quarter. That’s pretty robust for a utility, and it helped keep sentiment around the stock positive. Duke reported $4.39 billion in net income over the trailing 12 months, which translates to earnings per share of $5.70.
Of course, all this growth comes with a price. Duke’s balance sheet carries over $85 billion in total debt. That gives it a debt-to-equity ratio of nearly 167%, which is high even by utility standards. But this kind of leverage isn’t unusual in the space—especially when a company is investing heavily in infrastructure and clean energy transitions. The focus for investors here is on whether Duke can continue to service that debt without cutting into dividend reliability. So far, that hasn’t been a problem.
The stock’s low beta of 0.37 suggests it remains less volatile than the broader market. That kind of price stability is important for dividend investors looking for income with minimal drama.
Key Dividend Metrics
📈 Forward Dividend Yield: 3.43%
💵 Annual Dividend (Forward): $4.18 per share
📆 Most Recent Dividend Date: March 17, 2025
🪙 Payout Ratio: 72.6%
🕰️ 5-Year Average Dividend Yield: 4.01%
📊 Trailing Annual Dividend Yield: 3.40%
🧾 Ex-Dividend Date: February 14, 2025
🔢 Dividend Growth Rate (5Y CAGR): Moderate, around 2–3%
Dividend Overview
The appeal of Duke’s dividend is its stability. You’re not getting outsized yield here, but you’re getting something that shows up quarter after quarter, rain or shine. The current forward yield is 3.43%, which is slightly under the company’s five-year average but still comfortably ahead of the S&P 500 average.
Its annual payout of $4.18 per share comes with a payout ratio of just over 72%. That’s a bit on the high side, but again, pretty normal for the utility sector. These companies tend to run with higher ratios because of the predictability in their cash flows. It’s not about massive excess profits—just strong, dependable operating results.
One of the things that makes Duke so reliable is the sheer consistency of demand. People and businesses always need power, and Duke is operating in areas where population growth and electricity demand are both steady. It’s the kind of foundation that lets them keep the dividend flowing, even in tougher economic environments.
Duke has raised its dividend for 19 straight years. That streak doesn’t get the same attention as some Dividend Aristocrats, but it tells you what you need to know. This is a management team committed to delivering for shareholders.
Dividend Growth and Safety
Dividend growth with Duke isn’t going to blow anyone away—but it’s dependable. Over the past five years, they’ve increased the payout by about 2–3% annually. That’s enough to keep up with inflation and preserve purchasing power without putting too much pressure on the balance sheet.
Looking under the hood, there are a few red flags to keep in mind. Levered free cash flow is negative—coming in around -$1.84 billion over the past year. That’s mostly a reflection of heavy capital spending as the company pushes into renewables and modernizes its grid. These projects take a lot of up-front investment, so cash flow might remain tight in the near term.
Still, operating cash flow is strong at $12.3 billion, which gives Duke the flexibility to continue supporting its dividend. The current ratio is a low 0.67, and there’s only about $314 million in cash on hand, which means Duke isn’t sitting on a pile of liquidity. But for a utility, that’s not abnormal. What matters more is the ability to generate consistent earnings and maintain access to capital markets—both of which Duke has done well.
Ownership trends add to the sense of stability. Institutions hold nearly 67% of shares, signaling that large investors see this as a core holding in income portfolios. Insider ownership is extremely low at just 0.14%, which isn’t ideal but also not a red flag in the utility space.
In the end, Duke’s dividend profile checks the key boxes for income investors. It’s stable. It grows a little each year. It’s backed by steady demand and regulatory frameworks that create long-term earnings visibility. That makes Duke the kind of name many dividend investors are comfortable holding through just about any market cycle.
Cash Flow Statement
Duke Energy’s latest trailing 12-month (TTM) cash flow profile shows strong operating performance, with $12.3 billion in operating cash flow. That figure represents a healthy rebound from the $9.9 billion generated in 2023 and nearly double the 2021 level. It’s clear the company is effectively managing its regulated operations and generating steady cash inflow, even as broader capital expenditures continue to rise.
On the investment side, Duke spent heavily—over $13.1 billion in outflows—primarily tied to infrastructure upgrades and clean energy development. That puts capital expenditures at $12.3 billion for the period. Despite those high investment demands, free cash flow has flipped to a slim positive $48 million, a significant improvement from the negative figures seen over the past three years. Financing activity remained subdued, with modest net inflows of $859 million as new debt issuance ($9.5 billion) outpaced repayments and a rare $1 billion stock buyback appeared on the books. The cash position at year-end stood at $421 million, slightly above last year but still lean for a company of this size, reflecting a continued reliance on operational strength and access to capital markets rather than large cash reserves.
Analyst Ratings
Duke Energy has seen a wave of analyst updates recently, leaning toward cautious optimism. On April 10, BMO Capital reiterated its “Outperform” rating but nudged the price target down slightly from $128 to $123. 📉 That signals they still see strength in Duke’s fundamentals, but are dialing back expectations a bit amid evolving market conditions. Barclays, just two days earlier, reaffirmed its “Overweight” stance while raising its price target from $111 to $123. 🔼 Their move reflects growing confidence in Duke’s ability to manage its debt-heavy structure and push forward with clean energy investments.
In another update, UBS kept a “Neutral” rating in place, but still bumped the price target higher from $123 to $127. ⚖️ They’re not exactly calling for big outperformance, but they see value in Duke’s consistent earnings and shareholder returns. Morgan Stanley echoed that sentiment, maintaining an “Equal-Weight” rating while increasing their target from $123 to $128. 💼 They see a fairly balanced risk/reward tradeoff, especially in a higher rate environment.
Across the board, the average analyst price target now sits around $123.87. 🎯 Targets range from a more conservative $113 up to a bullish $135. Duke may not promise dramatic growth, but analysts appear to agree it offers solid, steady value—especially for investors focused on reliable income.
Earning Report Summary
Strong Finish to the Year
Duke Energy closed out 2024 on a strong note. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.66 for the fourth quarter, a solid step up from the $1.51 reported a year earlier. That growth came largely from rate increases and regulatory mechanisms that helped soften the impact of higher interest and depreciation expenses. For a utility with such a large infrastructure footprint, these kinds of earnings drivers are expected, but it’s good to see them working effectively.
For the full year, adjusted earnings hit $5.90 per share, which is a nice jump from the $5.56 they delivered in 2023. The electric utilities and infrastructure segment led the way, with $1.24 billion in income for the fourth quarter—up from $1.12 billion the year before. Gas operations weren’t far behind, turning in $231 million versus $192 million in the prior-year quarter. Both sides of the business moved in the right direction, supported by smart pricing and steady demand.
Leadership Outlook and 2025 Expectations
As leadership transitions, the tone from the top remains optimistic. Outgoing CEO Lynn Good called the fourth-quarter performance a strong finish to a year marked by meaningful progress. She made it clear that the company is entering 2025 from a solid position. That sentiment was echoed by Harry Sideris, who is stepping into the CEO role. He emphasized Duke’s focus on upgrading essential infrastructure and ensuring energy remains reliable and affordable for customers, even as the company pushes forward with its clean energy plans.
Looking ahead, Duke Energy expects 2025 adjusted earnings to land somewhere between $6.17 and $6.42 per share, with a midpoint target of $6.30. That puts them on track to maintain their long-term earnings growth target of 5% to 7% annually through 2029. These aren’t the kind of numbers that get day traders excited, but for long-term investors—especially those focused on income and stability—they offer a dependable path forward. The company’s clear focus on infrastructure investment, regulatory stability, and shareholder value continues to define its direction heading into the next chapter.
Chart Analysis
Price Trend and Moving Averages
The past year has been kind to DUK. After bottoming out just below $95 last May, the stock has pushed steadily higher, now trading north of $120. That’s a strong move for a name in this space and reflects a broader shift in sentiment toward stability-focused names. What stands out on this chart is the clear upward trend, supported by both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day in mid-January and has maintained that lead—a textbook bullish signal that often points to continued strength.
Since that crossover, the price has respected the 50-day average as support, pulling back briefly but never breaking down. That consistency tells you buyers are stepping in on dips, reinforcing confidence in the trend. The longer-term 200-day average also continues to rise steadily, reinforcing the upward momentum. As of now, the stock is riding well above both averages, indicating sustained buying interest.
Volume and Momentum
Volume has remained fairly consistent throughout the year, but there was a noticeable uptick in late March and early April, likely reflecting increased institutional participation or rotation into the name. These spikes lined up with price breakouts, which adds weight to their significance.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), DUK has spent a good chunk of the last few months hovering near the upper end of the neutral range. The RSI currently sits just under the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting strong momentum but not yet at extreme levels. Brief dips into the mid-40s during corrections were quickly reversed, another indicator of strong underlying support.
Final Observations
This chart paints the picture of a company that’s gaining steady traction without the erratic swings often seen in more speculative names. The price action is smooth, the moving averages are supportive, and momentum remains on the investor’s side. While the RSI does suggest the stock may need a breather occasionally, the broader technical backdrop points to a trend that’s healthy and well-supported.
Management Team
Leadership at Duke Energy has entered a new chapter. Lynn Good, who led the company for over ten years, stepped down after a period marked by steady transformation. Under her guidance, Duke leaned into clean energy, expanded its infrastructure investments, and consistently returned value to shareholders through dividends and operational reliability.
Harry Sideris has stepped in as the new CEO. He’s a familiar name inside the company, with more than two decades of experience across several leadership roles. His focus is on continuity—preserving Duke’s core values while pushing forward on renewable energy and infrastructure improvements. He’s made clear that reliability and affordability will remain at the forefront, even as the company shifts toward more sustainable energy sources.
The broader leadership team is rooted in experience and operational depth. This isn’t a group looking to chase trends or take outsized risks. The management approach is grounded, strategic, and measured—prioritizing long-term planning over quarterly headlines. It’s a structure that has historically aligned well with the company’s investor base.
Valuation and Stock Performance
Right now, Duke Energy is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio just under 19. That sits comfortably within the typical range for a well-established utility. It doesn’t scream undervalued, but it also doesn’t suggest the stock is priced for perfection. Investors are willing to pay a premium for predictability, and Duke offers plenty of that.
The stock has seen a steady climb over the past year, moving from below $95 to over $120. That’s a meaningful move in this sector and reflects more than just a broader shift toward defensive assets. It also suggests that the market is recognizing Duke’s progress on execution and its reliable financial profile. The 50- and 200-day moving averages have trended consistently higher, supporting the notion of a well-supported rally.
With an enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio around 12, Duke is in line with historical valuations. It’s neither overly stretched nor deeply discounted. The dividend yield, while slightly below the company’s five-year average, remains competitive at just over 3.4 percent. That, combined with consistent earnings, continues to anchor Duke as a core holding for income-focused portfolios.
Risks and Considerations
Despite its strengths, Duke Energy isn’t without its risks. The most visible concern is its debt load. With more than $85 billion in total debt, Duke carries a high leverage ratio. This isn’t unusual in the utility sector, especially for companies investing in large-scale infrastructure, but it does make interest rate movements more impactful. The company has done a solid job managing its balance sheet, but debt service remains a key financial pressure point.
Regulatory risk is another consideration. Duke operates across several states, and any delay or denial in rate adjustments can affect profitability. The company’s long-term strategy depends on consistent support from regulators, particularly as it pushes further into renewable projects and grid modernization. That relationship has generally been strong, but it requires ongoing management and transparency.
There are also operational risks tied to weather and aging infrastructure. Severe storms, flooding, or cold snaps can impact generation and delivery, increasing costs and potentially disrupting service. Meanwhile, older parts of the grid continue to demand upgrades, which adds capital pressure and can invite scrutiny from stakeholders and customers alike.
The transition to cleaner energy brings its own set of uncertainties. Renewable sources require upfront investment, and the timeline for full deployment can stretch over years. Customer acceptance, cost recovery, and shifting government policy all play a role in shaping how smoothly that transition goes.
Final Thoughts
Duke Energy continues to be a steady force in a sector built on long-term commitments. Its leadership change has been smooth, its financial footing remains firm, and its strategy continues to balance growth with reliability. The company is executing on its infrastructure plan, moving toward cleaner energy, and doing so in a way that avoids unnecessary risk.
Stock performance over the last year reflects growing investor trust. Duke isn’t being rewarded for hype; it’s being valued for follow-through. And while the valuation is fair rather than cheap, it reflects what investors expect from a business that consistently meets expectations and protects shareholder capital.
There are challenges ahead—debt, regulation, and energy transition among them—but none that feel outsized for a company of Duke’s size and history. It’s the kind of business that leans on operational execution, not market excitement. That’s a model that has worked well for years and shows no signs of changing.