Remember when Target tried to sell Men’s bikinis? I won’t forget.
On May 12, 2025, Bernstein downgraded Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) from “Market Perform” to “Underperform,” reducing its price target to $82 from $97. This decision stems from both immediate challenges and deeper structural concerns affecting the retailer’s performance.
Key Factors Behind the Downgrade
• Weak consumer sentiment due to economic uncertainty has led to reduced discretionary spending
• Unseasonably warm spring weather affected seasonal product sales
• A DEI-related strike in March disrupted operations
These factors have already strained Target’s performance, and upcoming tariff implementations could further pressure the company’s full-year guidance.
Structural Challenges
• Market share losses since 2019, including 50 basis points in apparel and 90 basis points in home goods
• Prices for everyday items are significantly higher compared to Walmart, Costco, and Amazon, reducing competitiveness
• Limited investment in digital infrastructure has left Target struggling with e-commerce fulfillment costs and lower margins
Bernstein concluded that Target faces a tough choice between chasing growth and preserving profitability, and its current strategy is falling short on both fronts.
Dividend Fundamentals
• Dividend yield is approximately 4.65%, notably higher than the Consumer Defensive sector average
• Annual dividend stands at \$4.48 per share
• Payout ratio around 50%, reflecting a balanced approach to shareholder returns
• Target has a 34-year history of consistent dividends with annual growth averaging 1.8%
While Target’s dividend remains a strong feature, its sustainability will be tested as operational headwinds and competitive disadvantages persist.